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Hamilton vs Wellington Phoenix 2 Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship
Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
Bidois R.
90' Event
Semmy T.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Football Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Hamilton
15%
Draws
26%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Wellington Phoenix 2 lately — more wins on the board than Hamilton.
  • Hamilton are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Football Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 16%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamilton Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 10 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.64 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.89 2.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.98 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2021 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Hamilton
1:2
Dec 6, 2020 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:1
Feb 15, 2020 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Hamilton
2:1
Dec 1, 2019 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:4
Mar 10, 2019 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Hamilton
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamilton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.99

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Bidois R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton 48 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamilton Wellington Phoenix 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamilton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamilton's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Wellington Phoenix 2 conceded in 84% of 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Hamilton stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Wellington Phoenix 2
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 2.75
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamilton

(Home)
29 Jul
Hamilton
0 : 3
Christchurch
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
20 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 0
Hamilton
30 Jul
Miramar
3 : 4
Hamilton
09 Jul
Auckland United
0 : 1
Hamilton
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Wellington Phoenix 2

(Away)
04 Oct
Cashmere Technical
10 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Auckland City 14 8 4 2 27:13 28
2 Team Wellington 14 7 5 2 35:21 26
3 Hamilton 14 5 5 4 23:21 20
4 Eastern Suburbs 14 5 4 5 25:23 19
5 Waitakere United 14 4 6 4 28:26 18
6 Canterbury 14 5 3 6 21:24 18
7 Hawke s Bay 14 4 1 9 17:29 13
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 14 2 4 8 18:37 10
Promotion - Football Championship (Play Offs)