Sport Picks

Scotland

SWPL 1 Women 2025/2026 New Douglas Park

Motherwell W

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Hamilton W play Motherwell W in the SWPL 1 Women 2025/2026. Motherwell W are favorites here. Recently, Hamilton W averaged 0.5 goals scored and 4.07 conceded. Motherwell W averaged 1.31 goals scored and 2.69 conceded. In past meetings, Hamilton W won 0, Motherwell W won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Hamilton W and 3.13 for Motherwell W. This points to a Motherwell W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%

Hamilton W

15%

Draws

68%

Motherwell W

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Motherwell W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

94% / Very High Confidence

Hamilton W picked up more points recently compared to Motherwell W.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 3.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 99%

Over 2.5 Goals 81%

Over 3.5 Goals 49%

Over 4.5 Goals 24%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Hamilton W Clean Sheet 10%

Motherwell W Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 89%

Second Half Goal 94%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Hamilton W	Motherwell W
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	1	10
Draws	2	3
Losses	27	19
Goals Scored	0.5	1.31
Goals Conceded	4.07	2.69
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	4.38	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 SWPL 1 Women

Hamilton W vs Motherwell W

Possession: 42% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

0:3

Apr 5, 2026 SWPL 1 Women

Motherwell W vs Hamilton W

Possession: 57% - 56% Cards: 3 - 2

4:0

Nov 16, 2025 SWPL 1 Women

Hamilton W vs Motherwell W

Possession: 41% - 42% Cards: 3 - 3

0:2

Sep 7, 2025 SWPL 1 Women

Motherwell W vs Hamilton W

Possession: 49% - 59% Cards: 3 - 4

4:1

Sep 29, 2024 SWPL Cup Women

Motherwell W vs Hamilton W

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 1 - 0

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamilton W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Motherwell W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronald L.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Boyce C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton W 17 / 100

Motherwell W 63 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Hamilton W Motherwell W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motherwell W Win (2)

Secondary Pick Motherwell W & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +88.9%

11.11

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +7.7%

1.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hamilton W attacking → ← attacking Motherwell W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamilton W scored in 33% of their last 30 games.

Motherwell W let in goals in 88% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Hamilton W went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Motherwell W lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

5 Points in last 5 33

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

4.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
7	Motherwell W	24	8	3	13	35:52	27
8	Montrose W	24	8	3	13	33:60	27
9	Aberdeen W	24	5	3	16	30:59	18
10	Hamilton W	24	0	2	22	10:104	2