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Hapoel Karmiel vs Nof Hagalil - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Israel Israel

Liga Alef North
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hapoel Karmiel host Nof Hagalil in the Liga Alef North. This one's hard to separate. Nof Hagalil have shipped 1.61 goals a game lately, while Hapoel Karmiel have conceded 0.91 and scored 1.36. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.33 - 0.78) back Hapoel Karmiel to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Hapoel Karmiel
35%
Draws
34%
Nof Hagalil
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Nof Hagalil average 1.46 goals a game right now, well clear of Hapoel Karmiel's 1.36.
  • Hapoel Karmiel are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Hapoel Karmiel Clean Sheet 20%
Nof Hagalil Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hapoel Karmiel Nof Hagalil
Matches Played 22 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 11
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.36 1.46
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 0.78
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hapoel Karmiel 40 / 100
Nof Hagalil 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hapoel Karmiel Nof Hagalil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hapoel Karmiel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hapoel Karmiel has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Hapoel Karmiel scored in 77% of their last 22 outings.

Nof Hagalil's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Away concern: Nof Hagalil has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hapoel Karmiel VS Nof Hagalil
1.29 Goals Scored 1.13
0.43 Goals Conceded 1.38
57% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hapoel Karmiel

(Home)
08 Oct
Hapoel Karmiel
1 : 0
Hapoel Tirat Karmel
01 Oct
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0 : 0
Hapoel Karmiel
23 Sept
Hapoel Karmiel
1 : 1
Ironi Nesher
19 Sept
Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad
1 : 1
Hapoel Karmiel
10 Sept
Hapoel Karmiel
3 : 0
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Page 1 of 5

Nof Hagalil

(Away)
08 Oct
Ironi Baka
1 : 2
Nof Hagalil
30 Sept
Nof Hagalil
2 : 3
FC Tzeirey Tamra
24 Sept
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
2 : 3
Nof Hagalil
09 Sept
Nof Hagalil
1 : 0
Hapoel Tirat Karmel
05 Sept
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
2 : 2
Nof Hagalil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 MS Tira 6 4 2 0 12:5 14
2 Beitar Nahariya 6 4 1 1 10:6 13
3 Hapoel Karmiel 6 3 3 0 9:3 12
4 Ironi Nesher 5 3 1 1 14:5 10
5 Maccabi Kiryat Ata-Bialik 6 3 1 2 15:9 10
6 Nof Hagalil 5 3 1 1 10:8 10
7 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
8 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 5 1 4 0 8:7 7
9 FC Tzeirey Tamra 6 2 0 4 7:15 6
10 Ironi Baka 6 1 2 3 8:10 5
11 Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad 5 1 2 2 5:8 5
12 Hapoel Bnei Musmus 5 1 2 2 3:6 5
13 H. Ihud Bnei Jatt 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
14 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmad 6 1 1 4 7:11 4
15 Beit Shean 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
16 Hapoel Tirat Karmel 4 1 0 3 5:6 3
17 Hapoel Ironi Arraba 6 0 2 4 2:14 2
18 Tzeirey Um El Fahem 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Leumit League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Alef North (Promotion - Play Offs)