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Stadium Background

Harju JK Laagri vs Narva

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Laagri kunstmurustaadion, Laagri
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sub
Eriks Santos In: Skinjov A.
Out: Eriks Santos
21'
Baljabkin N.
34' Event
Eerme K.
Assist: Binate A.

AI Match Summary

Harju JK Laagri in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Harju JK Laagri.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Harju JK Laagri
30%
Draws
16%
Narva
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Harju JK Laagri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Harju JK Laagri lately — more wins on the board than Narva.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Harju JK Laagri taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Harju JK Laagri here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 13%
Narva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harju JK Laagri Narva
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 2 4
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.63 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.57 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Narva
3:0
May 30, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Narva
3:0
Mar 7, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Harju JK Laagri
1:2
Oct 25, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Narva
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Harju JK Laagri
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Harju JK Laagri Compare

Top Goalscorer Eerme K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kelement M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Narva Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harju JK Laagri 57 / 100
Narva 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harju JK Laagri Narva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Harju JK Laagri Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Harju JK Laagri scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Narva has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Harju JK Laagri stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Harju JK Laagri VS Narva
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Harju JK Laagri

(Home)
18 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 0
Kuressaare
13 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
1 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
06 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
29 Aug
Nomme Utd
1 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
Page 1 of 6

Narva

(Away)
20 Sept
Narva
1 : 1
Levadia
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2
Flora
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
30 Aug
Narva
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)