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Harrogate vs Hornchurch Prediction & H2H Stats

England England

National League Exercise Stadium, Harrogate
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Harrogate host Hornchurch in the National League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Harrogate at 1.71 goals for, 1.39 against; Hornchurch at 1.69 for, 1.23 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 1.44, favoring Hornchurch. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Harrogate
15%
Draws
34%
Hornchurch
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Harrogate

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hornchurch lately — more wins on the board than Harrogate.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Harrogate taking it.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Harrogate Clean Sheet 16%
Hornchurch Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harrogate Hornchurch
Matches Played 28 35
Wins 14 19
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.71 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harrogate 84 / 100
Hornchurch 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harrogate Hornchurch

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Harrogate Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Harrogate found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Hornchurch conceded in 60% of 35 recent games.

Solid form: Harrogate remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Hornchurch's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Harrogate VS Hornchurch
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Harrogate

(Home)
26 Sept
Harrogate
4 : 1
Eastleigh
19 Sept
Boreham Wood
4 : 1
Harrogate
15 Sept
Harrogate
1 : 2
AFC Fylde
12 Sept
Harrogate
3 : 1
Tamworth
05 Sept
Scunthorpe
0 : 2
Harrogate
Page 1 of 6

Hornchurch

(Away)
26 Sept
Altrincham
3 : 0
Hornchurch
19 Sept
Hornchurch
1 : 0
Scunthorpe
15 Sept
Worthing FC
1 : 0
Hornchurch
12 Sept
Halifax
3 : 0
Hornchurch
08 Sept
Hornchurch
3 : 0
Ipswich U21
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boreham Wood 10 8 2 0 26:11 26
2 Southend 10 6 2 2 25:16 20
3 AFC Fylde 10 6 2 2 21:13 20
4 Harrogate 10 6 1 3 24:17 19
5 Aldershot 10 5 3 2 15:8 18
6 Yeovil 10 5 3 2 19:14 18
7 Kidderminster 10 5 3 2 13:8 18
8 Altrincham 10 6 0 4 15:15 18
9 Worthing FC 10 5 2 3 19:16 17
10 Sutton 10 5 2 3 13:13 17
11 Hornchurch 10 5 0 5 11:15 15
12 Forest Green 10 4 2 4 16:17 14
13 Eastleigh 10 4 2 4 12:14 14
14 Halifax 10 4 1 5 15:13 13
15 Woking 10 3 3 4 15:14 12
16 Barrow 10 3 3 4 15:14 12
17 Wealdstone 10 3 2 5 15:15 11
18 Boston United 10 3 2 5 13:14 11
19 Carlisle 10 2 4 4 18:19 10
20 Scunthorpe 10 3 1 6 15:16 10
21 Hartlepool 10 3 0 7 8:15 9
22 Tamworth 10 2 2 6 17:28 8
23 Solihull Moors 10 1 1 8 9:26 4
24 Gateshead 10 1 1 8 6:24 4
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