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Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Cup Trinity Health Stadium, East Hartford, CT
Hartford Athletic Logo

Hartford Athletic

0 - 1
FT
Louisville City Logo

Louisville City

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
McFadden A.
Assist: Davila T.
15'
Perez E.
58'
Sub
Fischer B. In: Real M.
Out: Fischer B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Hartford Athletic
30%
Draws
39%
Louisville City
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Louisville City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Louisville City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hartford Athletic are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Louisville City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Louisville City, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Hartford Athletic Clean Sheet 20%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hartford Athletic Louisville City
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 9 6
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.29 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 USL Cup
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City
0:1
Sep 25, 2026 USL Championship
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City
2:2
Jul 5, 2026 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Hartford Athletic
1:0
May 17, 2025 USL Championship
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hartford Athletic Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Louisville City Compare

Top Goalscorer McFadden A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hartford Athletic 36 / 100
Louisville City 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hartford Athletic Louisville City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hartford Athletic scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Louisville City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Hartford Athletic went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hartford Athletic VS Louisville City
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hartford Athletic

(Home)
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1
Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2
Louisville City
20 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 1
Hartford Athletic
16 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 0
Sporting Jax
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1
Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6

Louisville City

(Away)
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1
Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2
Louisville City
19 Sept
Louisville City
2 : 1
Loudoun United
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2
El Paso Locomotive
09 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 1
Louisville City
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Charlotte Independence 2
Hartford Athletic 4
Spokane Velocity 1
Colorado Springs 2
San Antonio FC 2
Miami FC 1
Tampa Bay 0
Louisville City 1
Semi-finals
Hartford Athletic 2
Colorado Springs 1
San Antonio FC 0
Louisville City 1
Final
Hartford Athletic 0
Louisville City 1