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Hawassa vs Ethiopian Insurance - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hawassa host Ethiopian Insurance in the Premier League. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Recent numbers: Hawassa at 0.89 goals for, 0.89 against; Ethiopian Insurance at 0.86 for, 0.83 against. Head-to-head, Hawassa have won 1 to Ethiopian Insurance's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 29, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (0.94 - 0.94) back Ethiopian Insurance to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Hawassa
30%
Draws
31%
Ethiopian Insurance
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hawassa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ethiopian Insurance come out ahead of Hawassa on wins alone.
  • Hawassa are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Hawassa Clean Sheet 20%
Ethiopian Insurance Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hawassa Ethiopian Insurance
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 12 12
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 0.89 0.86
Goals Conceded 0.89 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Premier League
Ethiopian Insurance vs Hawassa
2:1
Dec 20, 2025 Premier League
Hawassa vs Ethiopian Insurance
2:1
Apr 3, 2025 Premier League
Hawassa vs Ethiopian Insurance
1:2
Jan 16, 2025 Premier League
Ethiopian Insurance vs Hawassa
2:0
Mar 30, 2024 Premier League
Ethiopian Insurance vs Hawassa
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hawassa 40 / 100
Ethiopian Insurance 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hawassa Ethiopian Insurance

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hawassa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hawassa scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Ethiopian Insurance conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Hawassa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hawassa VS Ethiopian Insurance
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Hawassa

(Home)
02 Jul
Hawassa
2 : 3
Adama City
28 Jun
Ethio Electric S.C.
1 : 1
Hawassa
21 Jun
Hawassa
0 : 0
Bahir Dar Kenema
15 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 1
Hawassa
28 May
Hawassa
1 : 0
Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)
Page 1 of 6

Ethiopian Insurance

(Away)
01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0
Ethiopian Insurance
27 Jun
Ethiopian Insurance
0 : 3
Shire Endaselassie
21 Jun
Mechal SC
1 : 0
Ethiopian Insurance
14 Jun
Ethiopian Insurance
1 : 0
Dire Dawa
30 May
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1
Ethiopian Insurance
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Georges 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Hawassa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Ethio Electric S.C. 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mechal SC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Ethiopian Insurance 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Sidama Bunna 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Welayta Dicha 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Adama City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Fasil Kenema 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Welwalo Adigrat 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Bahir Dar Kenema 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hadiya Hossana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Gamo Chencha FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Halaba Ketema FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Negele Arsi Ketema FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Sheger Ketema FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)