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Hawke s Bay vs Southern United

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Delaney I.
35' Event
Goto S.
47' Event
Brook C.

AI Match Summary

Southern United in this Football Championship 2019/2020 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Southern United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Hawke s Bay
33%
Draws
40%
Southern United
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Southern United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hawke s Bay lately — more wins on the board than Southern United.
  • Win probability leans Southern United's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Hawke s Bay Clean Sheet 14%
Southern United Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hawke s Bay Southern United
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 9 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 0.5 0
Goals Conceded 2.25 0.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 29, 2020 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Southern United
3:4
Dec 7, 2019 Football Championship
Southern United vs Hawke s Bay
2:2
Mar 9, 2019 Football Championship
Southern United vs Hawke s Bay
2:2
Dec 9, 2018 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Southern United
3:2
Mar 17, 2018 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Southern United
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hawke s Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Goto S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Delaney I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Southern United Compare

Top Goalscorer Coughlan G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Brook C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hawke s Bay 27 / 100
Southern United 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hawke s Bay Southern United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Southern United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.80 goals when they meet.

Hawke s Bay found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

Hawke s Bay has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hawke s Bay VS Southern United
0.5 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.33
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Hawke s Bay

(Home)
10 Mar
Hawke s Bay
1 : 2
Eastern Suburbs
21 Feb
Waitakere United
2 : 0
Hawke s Bay
14 Feb
Hawke s Bay
3 : 2
Wellington Phoenix 2
06 Feb
Canterbury
2 : 1
Hawke s Bay
31 Jan
Hawke s Bay
0 : 4
Auckland City
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Southern United

(Away)
14 Mar
Southern United
0 : 1
Team Wellington
29 Feb
Hawke s Bay
3 : 4
Southern United
15 Feb
Southern United
2 : 1
Waitakere United
08 Feb
Hamilton
1 : 1
Southern United
01 Feb
Eastern Suburbs
6 : 0
Southern United
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Auckland City16114142:1537
2Team Wellington16104236:1534
3Waitakere United1683535:3227
4Eastern Suburbs1664633:2622
5Tasman United1662827:2620
6Hamilton1662824:3920
7Southern United1654725:3819
8Wellington Phoenix 21646630:3218
9Hawke s Bay1643932:4415
10Canterbury16241019:3610
Promotion - Football Championship 2019/2020 (Play Offs)