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Hebburn Town vs Lancaster

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Grand S.
57' Event
Heywood A.
78' Event
Martin G.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 game between Hebburn Town and Lancaster finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hebburn Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Hebburn Town
35%
Draws
32%
Lancaster
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hebburn Town come out ahead of Lancaster on wins alone.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Hebburn Town taking it.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Hebburn Town Clean Sheet 17%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hebburn Town Lancaster
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 19 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.91 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Hebburn Town vs Lancaster
4:1
Aug 16, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Hebburn Town
3:2
Jan 25, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Hebburn Town
2:2
Sep 21, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Hebburn Town vs Lancaster
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hebburn Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Heywood A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martin G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Lancaster Compare

Top Goalscorer Grand S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hebburn Town 57 / 100
Lancaster 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hebburn Town Lancaster

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HEB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hebburn Town scored in 88% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.

Lancaster let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Hebburn Town stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hebburn Town VS Lancaster
2.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hebburn Town

(Home)
08 Aug
Hebburn Town
3 : 1
Southport
01 Aug
Blyth Spartans
2 : 4
Hebburn Town
21 Jul
Hebburn Town
2 : 3
Hartlepool
18 Jul
Morpeth
2 : 2
Hebburn Town
14 Jul
Hebburn Town
3 : 3
Gateshead
Page 1 of 7

Lancaster

(Away)
08 Aug
Ashton United
4 : 1
Lancaster
21 Jul
Lancaster
2 : 2
Preston U21
25 Apr
Lancaster
2 : 0
Stocksbridge
18 Apr
Stockton
1 : 1
Lancaster
11 Apr
Lancaster
3 : 0
Gainsborough
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hebburn Town 40 23 10 7 75:41 79
2 Hednesford 40 22 11 7 62:35 77
3 United of Manchester 40 21 9 10 65:41 72
4 Warrington Rylands 40 18 13 9 59:42 67
5 Stockton 40 18 12 10 62:50 63
6 Lancaster 40 17 11 12 56:45 62
7 Gainsborough 40 16 11 13 50:45 59
8 Leek Town 40 17 7 16 50:52 58
9 Cleethorpes 40 14 13 13 56:47 55
10 Ashton United 40 14 11 15 47:54 53
11 Ilkeston 40 15 7 18 52:54 52
12 Bamber Bridge 40 14 8 18 52:52 50
13 Guiseley 40 13 9 18 46:56 48
14 Warrington Town 40 12 12 16 43:63 48
15 Hyde 40 11 14 15 58:63 47
16 Rushall 40 12 11 17 48:61 47
17 Whitby 40 10 13 17 43:55 43
18 Workington 40 10 13 17 43:58 43
19 Prescot Cables 40 9 15 16 40:50 42
20 Morpeth 40 12 6 22 38:54 42
21 Stocksbridge 40 8 12 20 38:65 36
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)