Sport Picks
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
Netherlands
Eredivisie Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen 
Match Events
7'
7'
Daal R.
Assist: Goes W.
21'
21'
Courtens N.
Assist: Vente D.
28'
28'
Courtens N.
AI Match Summary
The Eredivisie game between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AZ Alkmaar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AZ Alkmaar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and AZ Alkmaar come out ahead of Heerenveen on wins alone.
- Model gives AZ Alkmaar a 47% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Heerenveen Clean Sheet 10%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 13 | 17 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 2.19 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 2.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
2:3
Apr 12, 2026 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen
3:0
Nov 23, 2025 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
3:1
May 22, 2025 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen
4:1
Mar 2, 2025 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Heerenveen Compare
Top Goalscorer Courtens N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Meerveld R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
AZ Alkmaar Compare
Top Goalscorer Daal R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Meerdink M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Heerenveen 10 / 100
AZ Alkmaar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AZ Alkmaar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:9
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Heerenveen scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
AZ Alkmaar has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.
Heerenveen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Heerenveen VS AZ Alkmaar
1.75 Goals Scored 3.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Heerenveen
(Home) 19 Sept
Sparta Rotterdam
0 : 4 Heerenveen
13 Sept
Heerenveen
0 : 0 Telstar
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3 AZ Alkmaar
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2 Heerenveen
22 Aug
Heerenveen
0 : 2 Zwolle
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Heerenveen
0 : 0 Telstar
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3 AZ Alkmaar
22 Aug
Heerenveen
0 : 2 Zwolle
09 Aug
Heerenveen
1 : 0 Twente
01 Aug
Heerenveen
3 : 2 Volos
Page 1 of 3
AZ Alkmaar
(Away) 20 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 0 Telstar
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0 AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3 AZ Alkmaar
29 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
5 : 2 G.A. Eagles
Page 1 of 7
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0 AZ Alkmaar
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3 AZ Alkmaar
22 Aug
Sittard
0 : 2 AZ Alkmaar
15 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 4 AZ Alkmaar
02 Aug
PSV
0 : 4 AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:7 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24:10 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | 14 |
| 6 | Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 11 |
| 9 | G.A. Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16:14 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 11 | Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:17 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:19 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11:24 | 5 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:20 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7:17 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6:20 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
