Sport Picks
Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Netherlands
Eredivisie Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen 
AI Match Summary
Heerenveen host Excelsior in the Eredivisie. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Heerenveen at 1.97 goals for, 1.76 against; Excelsior at 2 for, 1.5 against. Past meetings favor Heerenveen slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 7, 2026, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.50 - 2.50) back Heerenveen to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Excelsior haven't matched Heerenveen's recent run of results.
- Heerenveen are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Heerenveen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 12 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Excelsior conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Attacking prowess: Heerenveen scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Heerenveen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Heerenveen
(Home)Excelsior
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:7 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24:10 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | 14 |
| 6 | Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 11 |
| 9 | G.A. Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16:14 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 11 | Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:17 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:19 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11:24 | 5 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:20 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7:17 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6:20 | 2 |
