Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Heerenveen W vs Ajax W

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Women Sportpark Skoatterwald, Heerenveen
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Franken B.
46'
Sub
Thomas K. In: Deitelzweig K.
Out: Thomas K.
64' Event
Snoeijs K.
Assist: Deitelzweig K.

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie Women game between Heerenveen W and Ajax W finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heerenveen W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Heerenveen W
20%
Draws
48%
Ajax W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ajax W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ajax W come out ahead of Heerenveen W on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ajax W a 48% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Eredivisie Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ajax W have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Heerenveen W Clean Sheet 12%
Ajax W Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heerenveen W Ajax W
Matches Played 27 32
Wins 10 19
Draws 3 4
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.81 2.25
Goals Conceded 2.33 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs Ajax W
3:1
May 22, 2026 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs Ajax W
1:3
Oct 4, 2025 Eredivisie Women
Ajax W vs Heerenveen W
4:1
Mar 9, 2025 Eredivisie Women
Ajax W vs Heerenveen W
5:1
Dec 15, 2024 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs Ajax W
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heerenveen W Compare

Top Goalscorer Franken B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Venema L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ajax W Compare

Top Goalscorer Snoeijs K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heerenveen W 27 / 100
Ajax W 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heerenveen W Ajax W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Heerenveen W scored in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.80 goals per match.

Heerenveen W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ajax W let in goals in 59% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Heerenveen W VS Ajax W
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Heerenveen W

(Home)
04 Oct
PEC Zwolle W
2 : 2
Heerenveen W
27 Sept
Heerenveen W
2 : 0
Utrecht W
20 Sept
Den Haag W
2 : 2
Heerenveen W
13 Sept
Heerenveen W
3 : 1
Ajax W
06 Sept
Twente W
5 : 1
Heerenveen W
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Ajax W

(Away)
04 Oct
Feyenoord W
1 : 4
Ajax W
30 Sept
Aktobe W
1 : 0
Ajax W
26 Sept
Ajax W
7 : 1
Den Haag W
23 Sept
Ajax W
8 : 0
Aktobe W
19 Sept
Ajax W
5 : 1
AZ Alkmaar W
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Twente W 7 7 0 0 29:3 21
2 Ajax W 7 6 0 1 20:6 18
3 PSV W 7 4 1 2 17:8 13
4 AZ Alkmaar W 7 4 0 3 9:16 12
5 De Graafschap W 7 3 0 4 10:12 9
6 Heerenveen W 7 2 2 3 11:13 8
7 PEC Zwolle W 7 2 1 4 13:17 7
8 Den Haag W 7 2 1 4 12:25 7
9 Feyenoord W 7 2 0 5 9:20 6
10 Utrecht W 7 0 1 6 4:14 1
Promotion - UEFA Europa Cup Women 2027/2028 (Qualification)