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Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Women Sportpark Skoatterwald, Heerenveen
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
11:15 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Heerenveen W host AZ Alkmaar W in the Eredivisie Women. Little to choose between these two on current form. Heerenveen W have averaged 1.81 scored and 2.33 conceded recently, against AZ Alkmaar W's 1.57 scored and 2.03 conceded. Past meetings favor Heerenveen W slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 1:5. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.81, favoring Heerenveen W. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Heerenveen W
20%
Draws
34%
AZ Alkmaar W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Heerenveen W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Heerenveen W haven't matched AZ Alkmaar W's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Heerenveen W a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Heerenveen W Clean Sheet 11%
AZ Alkmaar W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heerenveen W AZ Alkmaar W
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 3 6
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.81 1.57
Goals Conceded 2.33 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:5
Jan 18, 2026 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W
3:2
Mar 26, 2025 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W
2:3
Nov 24, 2024 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:0
May 11, 2024 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heerenveen W 83 / 100
AZ Alkmaar W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heerenveen W AZ Alkmaar W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Heerenveen W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Heerenveen W scored in 85% of their last 27 games.

AZ Alkmaar W let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Heerenveen W stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Heerenveen W VS AZ Alkmaar W
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Heerenveen W

(Home)
04 Oct
PEC Zwolle W
2 : 2
Heerenveen W
27 Sept
Heerenveen W
2 : 0
Utrecht W
20 Sept
Den Haag W
2 : 2
Heerenveen W
13 Sept
Heerenveen W
3 : 1
Ajax W
06 Sept
Twente W
5 : 1
Heerenveen W
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AZ Alkmaar W

(Away)
04 Oct
De Graafschap W
3 : 0
AZ Alkmaar W
27 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
0 : 5
Twente W
19 Sept
Ajax W
5 : 1
AZ Alkmaar W
13 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
3 : 1
PSV W
06 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 0
Utrecht W
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Twente W 7 7 0 0 29:3 21
2 Ajax W 7 6 0 1 20:6 18
3 PSV W 7 4 1 2 17:8 13
4 AZ Alkmaar W 7 4 0 3 9:16 12
5 De Graafschap W 7 3 0 4 10:12 9
6 Heerenveen W 7 2 2 3 11:13 8
7 PEC Zwolle W 7 2 1 4 13:17 7
8 Den Haag W 7 2 1 4 12:25 7
9 Feyenoord W 7 2 0 5 9:20 6
10 Utrecht W 7 0 1 6 4:14 1
Promotion - UEFA Europa Cup Women 2027/2028 (Qualification)