Sport Picks

Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 GS Staalwerken Stadion

Venlo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Helmond Sport play Venlo in the Eerste Divisie 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Helmond Sport averaged 1 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Venlo averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. In past meetings, Helmond Sport won 2, Venlo won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 17, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Helmond Sport and 1.31 for Venlo. This points to a Venlo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Helmond Sport

24%

Draws

43%

Venlo

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Venlo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Helmond Sport picked up more points recently compared to Venlo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 62%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Helmond Sport Clean Sheet 18%

Venlo Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Helmond Sport	Venlo
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	5	9
Draws	9	6
Losses	15	14
Goals Scored	1	1.31
Goals Conceded	1.86	1.76
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Eerste Divisie

Helmond Sport vs Venlo

Possession: 51% - 49% Cards: 1 - 3

2:0

Sep 13, 2025 Eerste Divisie

Venlo vs Helmond Sport

Possession: 56% - 45% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Apr 13, 2025 Eerste Divisie

Venlo vs Helmond Sport

Possession: 41% - 43% Cards: 2 - 2

4:1

Aug 30, 2024 Eerste Divisie

Helmond Sport vs Venlo

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Mar 1, 2024 Eerste Divisie

Helmond Sport vs Venlo

Possession: 44% - 51% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Helmond Sport Compare

Top Goalscorer Bajrami L.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Makanza N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.48

Avg xA / game 0.32

Venlo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Helmond Sport 33 / 100

Venlo 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Helmond Sport Venlo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Venlo or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.79

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Helmond Sport attacking → ← attacking Venlo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Helmond Sport scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Venlo let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Helmond Sport went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Venlo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 33

0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Den Haag	38	29	2	7	90:37	89
2	Cambuur	38	23	9	6	75:48	78
3	Willem II	38	20	8	10	59:42	68
4	De Graafschap	38	18	9	11	74:58	63
5	Almere City	38	18	4	16	78:63	58
6	Waalwijk	38	16	10	12	71:59	58
7	Jong PSV	38	17	5	16	66:64	56
8	Roda	38	14	13	11	59:54	55
9	Den Bosch	38	14	9	15	65:69	51
10	Dordrecht	38	12	11	15	48:56	47
11	Eindhoven FC	38	14	5	19	51:69	47
12	Jong Utrecht	38	12	10	16	58:62	46
13	Venlo	38	13	6	19	50:58	45
14	FC Emmen	38	12	9	17	58:72	45
15	Vitesse	38	15	11	12	64:55	44
16	TOP Oss	38	11	11	16	54:64	44
17	Jong AZ Alkmaar	38	12	4	22	61:76	40
18	Helmond Sport	38	10	9	19	42:62	39
19	Maastricht	38	9	11	18	41:73	38
20	Jong Ajax	38	9	8	21	50:73	35