Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Helmond Sport vs Venlo

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie MySteel Stadion, Helmond
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Cicero L.
36'
Sub
Schalk A. In: Tsigkas M.
Out: Schalk A.
44' Event
Bajrami L.
Assist: Dekkers S.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie game between Helmond Sport and Venlo finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Helmond Sport.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Helmond Sport
15%
Draws
54%
Venlo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Venlo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Venlo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Helmond Sport Clean Sheet 10%
Venlo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Helmond Sport Venlo
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 6 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Helmond Sport vs Venlo
4:2
Apr 17, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Helmond Sport vs Venlo
2:0
Sep 13, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Helmond Sport
2:1
Apr 13, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Helmond Sport
4:1
Aug 30, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Helmond Sport vs Venlo
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Helmond Sport Compare

Top Goalscorer Lenaerts M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cicero L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Venlo Compare

Top Goalscorer Clancy E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Helmond Sport 30 / 100
Venlo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Helmond Sport Venlo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Venlo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Venlo conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Helmond Sport scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Helmond Sport has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Helmond Sport VS Venlo
1.75 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Helmond Sport

(Home)
18 Sept
Den Bosch
2 : 1
Helmond Sport
11 Sept
Helmond Sport
3 : 1
Jong PSV
04 Sept
Helmond Sport
4 : 2
Venlo
28 Aug
Jong Ajax
3 : 2
Helmond Sport
21 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1
Waalwijk
Page 1 of 6

Venlo

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Utrecht
1 : 3
Venlo
11 Sept
Venlo
3 : 1
TOP Oss
04 Sept
Helmond Sport
4 : 2
Venlo
30 Aug
Venlo
4 : 0
FC Emmen
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1
De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 24:10 18
2 Almere City 8 5 1 2 18:7 16
3 Venlo 7 5 0 2 19:11 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 18:9 13
5 Vitesse 7 4 1 2 13:9 13
6 Maastricht 7 4 1 2 10:15 13
7 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
8 Roda 7 3 3 1 7:5 12
9 FC Emmen 7 4 0 3 17:17 12
10 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
11 NAC Breda 7 3 1 3 13:15 10
12 Eindhoven FC 7 3 1 3 11:13 10
13 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 17:14 9
14 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 12:23 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
19 TOP Oss 7 2 0 5 8:12 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 8:20 4
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)