Sport Picks
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League South 
Match Events
21'
21'
Korboa R.
64'
64'
Panayiotou H.
AI Match Summary
The National League South game between Hemel Hempstead and Tonbridge finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
30%
58%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tonbridge
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tonbridge carry the better recent record into this one.
- 58% — that's where the model lands on Tonbridge taking it.
- Regular National League South form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Hemel Hempstead Clean Sheet 19%
Tonbridge Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hemel Hempstead | Tonbridge |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 14 |
| Draws | 11 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 17, 2026 National League South
Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead
1:0
Sep 12, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
1:1
Feb 28, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 National League South
Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead
1:3
Mar 1, 2025 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Hemel Hempstead Compare
Top Goalscorer Panayiotou H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Tonbridge Compare
Top Goalscorer Korboa R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Hemel Hempstead 10 / 100
Tonbridge 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Hemel Hempstead Tonbridge
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tonbridge Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hemel Hempstead's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Tonbridge let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Hemel Hempstead has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Hemel Hempstead VS Tonbridge
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Hemel Hempstead
(Home) 31 Oct
Billericay
5 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
27 Oct
Dorking Wanderers
3 : 3 Hemel Hempstead
24 Oct
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 3 AFC Totton
17 Oct
Tonbridge
1 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
10 Oct
Dagenham & Red.
0 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 3 AFC Totton
19 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Wingate & Finchley
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
05 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Farnham
29 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 3 Weston-super-Mare
Page 1 of 3
Tonbridge
(Away) 31 Oct
Tonbridge
1 : 2 Salisbury
27 Oct
Tonbridge
2 : 0 Folkestone
24 Oct
Chelmsford
3 : 3 Tonbridge
17 Oct
Tonbridge
1 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
10 Oct
Maidenhead
0 : 1 Tonbridge
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Chelmsford
3 : 3 Tonbridge
10 Oct
Maidenhead
0 : 1 Tonbridge
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
05 Sept
Farnborough
0 : 4 Tonbridge
29 Aug
Billericay
2 : 2 Tonbridge
Page 1 of 2
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 35:10 | 31 |
| 2 | Truro | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 27:12 | 30 |
| 3 | Maidstone | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26:18 | 29 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 25:10 | 28 |
| 5 | Dorking Wanderers | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 34:23 | 27 |
| 6 | Farnham | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 29:19 | 26 |
| 7 | Billericay | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 32:16 | 25 |
| 8 | Tonbridge | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 27:16 | 24 |
| 9 | Dagenham & Red. | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13:11 | 24 |
| 10 | Horsham FC | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 21:16 | 22 |
| 11 | Dover Ath. | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20:19 | 22 |
| 12 | Chelmsford | 14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 13 | Torquay | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 22:17 | 20 |
| 14 | Folkestone | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 15 | Weston-super-Mare | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 21:21 | 18 |
| 16 | Farnborough | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 12:31 | 17 |
| 17 | Braintree | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 21:34 | 16 |
| 18 | AFC Totton | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 14:27 | 16 |
| 19 | Maidenhead | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14:19 | 15 |
| 20 | Hemel Hempstead | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14:22 | 15 |
| 21 | Chesham | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 20:32 | 11 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 18:36 | 9 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10:33 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 15:39 | 4 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
