Sport Picks
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
England
National League South Focus Community Arena, Hemel Hempstead 
Match Events
21'
21'
Korboa R.
64'
64'
Panayiotou H.
AI Match Summary
The National League South game between Hemel Hempstead and Tonbridge finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
18%
35%
47%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tonbridge
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tonbridge carry the better recent record into this one.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Tonbridge taking it.
- Regular National League South form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Hemel Hempstead Clean Sheet 13%
Tonbridge Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hemel Hempstead | Tonbridge |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 8 | 4 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
1:1
Feb 28, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 National League South
Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead
1:3
Mar 1, 2025 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge
2:0
Nov 23, 2024 National League South
Tonbridge vs Hemel Hempstead
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Hemel Hempstead Compare
Top Goalscorer Panayiotou H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Tonbridge Compare
Top Goalscorer Korboa R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Hemel Hempstead 10 / 100
Tonbridge 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Hemel Hempstead Tonbridge
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tonbridge Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hemel Hempstead's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Tonbridge let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Hemel Hempstead has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Hemel Hempstead VS Tonbridge
1 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Hemel Hempstead
(Home) 12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
08 Sept
Ebbsfleet
0 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
05 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Farnham
31 Aug
Folkestone
2 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
29 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 3 Weston-super-Mare
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
05 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Farnham
29 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 3 Weston-super-Mare
18 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
0 : 1 Maidenhead
08 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 3
Tonbridge
(Away) 12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
08 Sept
Tonbridge
0 : 1 Maidstone
05 Sept
Farnborough
0 : 4 Tonbridge
31 Aug
Tonbridge
5 : 1 Walton & Hersham
29 Aug
Billericay
2 : 2 Tonbridge
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
05 Sept
Farnborough
0 : 4 Tonbridge
29 Aug
Billericay
2 : 2 Tonbridge
18 Aug
Dover Ath.
0 : 1 Tonbridge
08 Aug
Braintree
0 : 4 Tonbridge
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:9 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:7 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Red. | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:7 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18:14 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover Ath. | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15:16 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:9 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 9:8 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:18 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8:13 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:23 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:1 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9:21 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:24 | 1 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
