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Hemel Hempstead vs Weston-super-Mare - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League South 2025/2026
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
1 - 2
06:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

75' Event
Britton L.
90' Event
White J.
1' Event
Noel-Williams I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Weston-super-Mare in this National League South 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Hemel Hempstead
35%
Draws
35%
Weston-super-Mare
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Weston-super-Mare have won more games recently than Hemel Hempstead.
  • Hemel Hempstead are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Weston-super-Mare arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Weston-super-Mare, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Hemel Hempstead Clean Sheet 20%
Weston-super-Mare Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hemel Hempstead Weston-super-Mare
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.21 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Weston-super-Mare
1:3
Apr 28, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Weston-super-Mare
1:2
Mar 31, 2026 National League South
Weston-super-Mare vs Hemel Hempstead
0:0
Nov 4, 2025 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Weston-super-Mare
3:0
Feb 1, 2025 National League South
Weston-super-Mare vs Hemel Hempstead
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hemel Hempstead Compare

Top Goalscorer White J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Weston-super-Mare Compare

Top Goalscorer Britton L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hemel Hempstead 42 / 100
Weston-super-Mare 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hemel Hempstead Weston-super-Mare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hemel Hempstead scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Weston-super-Mare let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Hemel Hempstead remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hemel Hempstead VS Weston-super-Mare
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hemel Hempstead

(Home)
26 Sept
Slough Town
0 : 2
Hemel Hempstead
22 Sept
Wingate & Finchley
2 : 1
Hemel Hempstead
19 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1
Wingate & Finchley
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1
Tonbridge
08 Sept
Ebbsfleet
0 : 0
Hemel Hempstead
Page 1 of 6

Weston-super-Mare

(Away)
26 Sept
Farnham
3 : 2
Weston-super-Mare
22 Sept
Wimborne
2 : 1
Weston-super-Mare
19 Sept
Weston-super-Mare
1 : 1
Wimborne
12 Sept
Weston-super-Mare
1 : 0
Dagenham & Red.
08 Sept
Weston-super-Mare
3 : 1
AFC Totton
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Hornchurch -
TBD -
Hemel Hempstead 1
Weston-super-Mare 2
Torquay -
TBD -
Dorking Wanderers 2
Maidenhead 0
Semi-finals
Hornchurch 2
Weston-super-Mare 0
Torquay 4
Dorking Wanderers 2
Final
Hornchurch 3
Torquay 2