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Heraclea vs Gravina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Basanisi A.
(Penalty)
36' Event
Musy Hernandez M.
49' Event
Mazzaroppi S.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Heraclea
20%
Draws
61%
Gravina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gravina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Heraclea haven't matched Gravina's recent run of results.
  • Gravina are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 14%
Gravina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Gravina
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 16
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.94 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Gravina
2:2
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Heraclea
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Musy Hernandez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mazzaroppi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Gravina Compare

Top Goalscorer Urso F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 10 / 100
Gravina 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Gravina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Heraclea scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Gravina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Heraclea remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Gravina
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 7

Gravina

(Away)
03 May
Gravina
3 : 2
Real Normanna
26 Apr
Afragolese
0 : 6
Gravina
19 Apr
Gravina
1 : 0
Paganese
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Gravina
0 : 0
Martina Calcio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)