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Heraclea vs Martina Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Ievolella L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H game between Heraclea and Martina Calcio finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Martina Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Heraclea
15%
Draws
51%
Martina Calcio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Martina Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Martina Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 13%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Martina Calcio
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 8 15
Draws 8 6
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.94 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.23 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Heraclea
2:1
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Martina Calcio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Martina Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Ievolella L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 31 / 100
Martina Calcio 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Martina Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Heraclea scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Martina Calcio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Martina Calcio's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Martina Calcio
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
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Martina Calcio

(Away)
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1
Paganese
10 May
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
A.C.D. Nardo
03 May
SS Nola 1925
2 : 1
Martina Calcio
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Citta di Fasano
1 : 0
Martina Calcio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)