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Heraclea vs Martina Calcio Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Ievolella L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Heraclea and Martina Calcio finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Martina Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Heraclea
15%
Draws
59%
Martina Calcio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Martina Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Martina Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Martina Calcio a 59% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 17%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Martina Calcio
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 17
Draws 8 5
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 0.93 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 1.42
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Heraclea
2:1
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Martina Calcio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Martina Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Ievolella L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.29
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 20 / 100
Martina Calcio 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Martina Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Martina Calcio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Martina Calcio let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Heraclea stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Martina Calcio
1.29 Goals Scored 1.13
1.71 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
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Martina Calcio

(Away)
27 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 3
Martina Calcio
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 2
Martina Calcio
13 Sept
Martina Calcio
2 : 0
Real Forio 2014
06 Sept
Turris
4 : 3
Martina Calcio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)