Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Heracles vs De Graafschap

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie Asito Stadium, Almelo
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
N'djoli J.
Assist: Abbas C.
23'
Wrusch M.
41' Event
Abbas C.
Assist: Scheperman S.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie game between Heracles and De Graafschap finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heracles.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Heracles
15%
Draws
5%
De Graafschap
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Heracles

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • De Graafschap carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Heracles a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Heracles Clean Sheet 14%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heracles De Graafschap
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 2 7
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.86
Goals Conceded 2.18 2.28
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Heracles vs De Graafschap
5:0
Jan 16, 2025 KNVB Beker
De Graafschap vs Heracles
0:2
Apr 7, 2023 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Heracles
5:3
Oct 7, 2022 Eerste Divisie
Heracles vs De Graafschap
3:2
Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly
Heracles vs De Graafschap
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heracles Compare

Top Goalscorer N'djoli J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Abbas C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

De Graafschap Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heracles 84 / 100
De Graafschap 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heracles De Graafschap

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Heracles Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

De Graafschap has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

Heracles has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Heracles's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Heracles VS De Graafschap
2.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Heracles

(Home)
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0
De Graafschap
30 Aug
Eindhoven FC
1 : 3
Heracles
24 Aug
Jong Utrecht
1 : 6
Heracles
14 Aug
Heracles
3 : 2
Den Bosch
07 Aug
Venlo
3 : 4
Heracles
Page 1 of 6

De Graafschap

(Away)
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0
De Graafschap
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4
Almere City
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1
De Graafschap
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5
Jong AZ Alkmaar
09 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1
De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 6 6 0 0 24:9 18
2 Almere City 6 4 1 1 15:4 13
3 Maastricht 6 4 1 1 9:9 13
4 Venlo 6 4 0 2 16:10 12
5 FC Emmen 6 4 0 2 16:14 12
6 Roda 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Jong PSV 7 3 2 2 12:12 11
8 Waalwijk 6 2 4 0 12:8 10
9 Vitesse 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
10 FC Volendam 6 3 0 3 16:10 9
11 Jong AZ Alkmaar 7 3 0 4 17:15 9
12 Helmond Sport 6 2 2 2 12:10 8
13 NAC Breda 6 2 1 3 11:14 7
14 Eindhoven FC 6 2 1 3 8:12 7
15 Jong Ajax 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
16 Den Bosch 6 1 1 4 10:15 4
17 Dordrecht 6 1 1 4 9:18 4
18 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 7:18 4
19 Jong Utrecht 7 1 1 5 8:17 4
20 TOP Oss 6 1 0 5 5:12 3
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)