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Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Dudu Silva
33'
Emerson Tucao
72' Event
Miguel Silva

AI Match Summary

Hercilio Luz in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Hercilio Luz
40%
Draws
29%
CA Metropolitano
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to CA Metropolitano lately — more wins on the board than Hercilio Luz.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 16%
CA Metropolitano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz CA Metropolitano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 16
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 2.25 2.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
3:0
May 3, 2026 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Hercilio Luz
0:0
Mar 27, 2021 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
2:2
Mar 16, 2019 Catarinense
CA Metropolitano vs Hercilio Luz
3:1
Jan 26, 2019 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Dudu Silva
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miguel Silva
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

CA Metropolitano Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 31 / 100
CA Metropolitano 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz CA Metropolitano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Hercilio Luz stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Hercilio Luz found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

CA Metropolitano let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS CA Metropolitano
2.25 Goals Scored 2.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Hercilio Luz

(Home)
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
12 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
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CA Metropolitano

(Away)
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
22 Jul
Gremio Juventus
0 : 2
CA Metropolitano
18 Jul
CA Metropolitano
6 : 1
Jaragua-SC
15 Jul
Blumenau
4 : 1
CA Metropolitano
12 Jul
Tubarao
2 : 3
CA Metropolitano
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz18133235:1042
2CA Metropolitano18122436:1838
3Caravaggio18105347:2035
4Blumenau1894535:1531
5Tubarao1865723:2123
6Guarani de Palhoca1865724:2423
7Nacao1856719:2621
8Fluminense-SC1863916:2521
9Gremio Juventus18521117:2617
10Jaragua-SC1801176:731
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)