Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Macari F.
35' Event
Luan Santos
63' Event
Hugo Costa

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Hercilio Luz and Fluminense-SC finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Hercilio Luz
6%
Draws
4%
Fluminense-SC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Fluminense-SC haven't matched Hercilio Luz's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Hercilio Luz a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Hercilio Luz have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%
Fluminense-SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz Fluminense-SC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 2.25 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
4:2
May 6, 2026 Catarinense 2
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
1:0
Oct 20, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
Sep 26, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Luan Santos
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hugo Costa
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Fluminense-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Macari F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Andrey
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 95 / 100
Fluminense-SC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz Fluminense-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fluminense-SC let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Hercilio Luz went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Hercilio Luz's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS Fluminense-SC
2.25 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hercilio Luz

(Home)
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
12 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
Page 1 of 6

Fluminense-SC

(Away)
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
22 Jul
Fluminense-SC
2 : 1
Tubarao
19 Jul
Gremio Juventus
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
15 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Guarani de Palhoca
12 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Fluminense-SC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz18133235:1042
2CA Metropolitano18122436:1838
3Caravaggio18105347:2035
4Blumenau1894535:1531
5Tubarao1865723:2123
6Guarani de Palhoca1865724:2423
7Nacao1856719:2621
8Fluminense-SC1863916:2521
9Gremio Juventus18521117:2617
10Jaragua-SC1801176:731
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)