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Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Dudu Silva
33'
Emerson Tucao
72' Event
Miguel Silva

AI Match Summary

Hercilio Luz in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Hercilio Luz
15%
Draws
28%
CA Metropolitano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hercilio Luz lately — more wins on the board than CA Metropolitano.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Hercilio Luz taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%
CA Metropolitano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz CA Metropolitano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 16
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.73 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
4:2
Jun 21, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
3:0
May 3, 2026 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Hercilio Luz
0:0
Mar 27, 2021 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
2:2
Mar 16, 2019 Catarinense
CA Metropolitano vs Hercilio Luz
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Dudu Silva
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miguel Silva
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

CA Metropolitano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 68 / 100
CA Metropolitano 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz CA Metropolitano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Hercilio Luz found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Hercilio Luz has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

CA Metropolitano lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS CA Metropolitano
2 Goals Scored 2.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Hercilio Luz

(Home)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
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CA Metropolitano

(Away)
27 Sept
CA Metropolitano
0 : 1
Figueirense
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1
CA Metropolitano
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5
Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)