Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 1-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Hercilio Luz have averaged 1.71 scored and 0.93 conceded recently, against Nacao's 0.92 scored and 1.52 conceded. Head-to-head, Hercilio Luz have won 4 to Nacao's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 25, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 0.94, favoring Hercilio Luz. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Hercilio Luz have won more games recently than Nacao.
- Model gives Hercilio Luz a 51% chance of winning this.
- Hercilio Luz have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Hercilio Luz, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Hercilio Luz have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hercilio Luz | Nacao |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 25 |
| Wins | 16 | 5 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 0.92 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hercilio Luz went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Hercilio Luz scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Defensive concern: Nacao conceded in 64% of 25 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Hercilio Luz
(Home)Nacao
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 2 | Marcilio Dias | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:6 | 6 |
| 3 | Hercilio Luz | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 4 | Figueirense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 5 | Joinville | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 6 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 7 | Nacao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 9 | CA Metropolitano | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | 0 |
