Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Herediano vs Alajuelense

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division Estadio Carlos Alvarado, Heredia
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Cisneros R.
33' Event
Parkins R.
46'
Sub
Bravo E. In: Suarez A.
Out: Bravo E.

AI Match Summary

Alajuelense in this Primera Division matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alajuelense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Herediano
15%
Draws
46%
Alajuelense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Herediano have won more games recently than Alajuelense.
  • Alajuelense are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Herediano Clean Sheet 16%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Herediano Alajuelense
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 16 15
Draws 4 6
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 10, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
0:3
Jul 12, 2026 Super Cup
Alajuelense vs Herediano
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
2:1
Feb 8, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Herediano
1:1
Oct 17, 2025 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Herediano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Parkins R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lucumi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Herediano 19 / 100
Alajuelense 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Herediano Alajuelense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alajuelense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Herediano scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Alajuelense conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Herediano remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Herediano VS Alajuelense
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Herediano

(Home)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
13 Sept
Escorpiones
0 : 2
Herediano
05 Sept
Herediano
2 : 3
Zeledon
30 Aug
Cartagines
1 : 0
Herediano
27 Aug
Herediano
2 : 1
Antigua
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Alajuelense

(Away)
20 Sept
Alajuelense
5 : 0
Inter San Carlos
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
14 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 1
Alajuelense
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Saprissa 9 7 0 2 20:10 21
2 Cartagines 9 6 0 3 18:10 18
3 Sporting FC 9 5 2 2 16:8 17
4 San Carlos 9 5 0 4 8:9 15
5 Alajuelense 9 4 2 3 15:10 14
6 Inter San Carlos 9 4 2 3 9:12 14
7 Puntarenas FC 9 3 2 4 8:13 11
8 Zeledon 9 2 2 5 7:14 8
9 Herediano 9 2 1 6 8:14 7
10 Escorpiones 9 1 1 7 6:15 4
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)