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Herediano vs Liberia

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Alvarado, Heredia
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Ruiz J.
14'
Rubio E.
26'
Sub
Villalobos M. In: Pena R.
Out: Villalobos M.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Herediano and Liberia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Liberia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Herediano
33%
Draws
27%
Liberia
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Herediano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Herediano come out ahead of Liberia on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Herediano's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Herediano Clean Sheet 68%
Liberia Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Herediano Liberia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 13
Draws 4 7
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1 1.71
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Liberia
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Herediano
1:0
Oct 19, 2025 Primera Division
Liberia vs Herediano
1:0
Sep 1, 2025 Primera Division
Herediano vs Liberia
1:0
Apr 12, 2025 Primera Division
Liberia vs Herediano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Torres E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 0.95

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Herediano 50 / 100
Liberia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Herediano Liberia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Herediano scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Liberia let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Herediano has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Herediano VS Liberia
1 Goals Scored 1.71
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.86
38% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 43%
0% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Herediano

(Home)
24 Jul
Herediano
1 : 1
Puntarenas FC
18 Jul
Herediano
1 : 0
Saprissa
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
17 May
Herediano
2 : 0
Saprissa
14 May
Saprissa
2 : 1
Herediano
Page 1 of 6

Liberia

(Away)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)