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Stadium Background

Herediano vs Saprissa

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Recopa de Costa Rica Estadio José Rafael Fello Meza, Cartago
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Araya R.
18'
Waston K.
20' Event
Aguilar E.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Herediano
15%
Draws
46%
Saprissa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saprissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Saprissa lately — more wins on the board than Herediano.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Saprissa taking it.
  • Saprissa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Herediano, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Herediano Clean Sheet 13%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Herediano Saprissa
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 19
Draws 4 4
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.07 2.13
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:0
Jul 18, 2026 Recopa de Costa Rica
Herediano vs Saprissa
1:0
May 17, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Saprissa
2:0
May 14, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:1
Mar 8, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Saprissa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Herediano 22 / 100
Saprissa 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Herediano Saprissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saprissa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Herediano scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Saprissa has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Herediano went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Herediano VS Saprissa
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Herediano

(Home)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
13 Sept
Escorpiones
0 : 2
Herediano
05 Sept
Herediano
2 : 3
Zeledon
30 Aug
Cartagines
1 : 0
Herediano
27 Aug
Herediano
2 : 1
Antigua
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Saprissa

(Away)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
17 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 2
Saprissa
13 Sept
Sporting FC
4 : 2
Saprissa
10 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 2
Cartagines
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Herediano 1
Saprissa 0