Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hibernians vs Hamrun

Malta Malta

Premier League 2025/2026 Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Robert J.
16'
Diakite A.
23'
Cleiton

AI Match Summary

Hamrun in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hamrun.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Hibernians
33%
Draws
40%
Hamrun
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Hamrun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hamrun lately — more wins on the board than Hibernians.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Hamrun taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Hibernians Clean Sheet 13%
Hamrun Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hibernians Hamrun
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.86 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.86 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.43 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 Premier League
Hibernians vs Hamrun
0:1
Feb 10, 2026 Super Cup
Hamrun vs Hibernians
1:2
Sep 27, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Hibernians
2:0
May 14, 2025 FA Trophy
Hamrun vs Hibernians
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Premier League
Hibernians vs Hamrun
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hibernians Compare

Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.43

Hamrun Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbong J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hibernians 27 / 100
Hamrun 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hibernians Hamrun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hibernians found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Hibernians went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Hamrun's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Hibernians VS Hamrun
0.86 Goals Scored 1.88
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.38
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 75%
14% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hibernians

(Home)
30 Apr
Zabbar
3 : 0
Hibernians
24 Apr
Hibernians
2 : 0
Mosta FC
18 Apr
Hibernians
0 : 0
Birkirkara
14 Apr
Tarxien
3 : 2
Hibernians
10 Apr
Sliema
1 : 1
Hibernians
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Hamrun

(Away)
16 Jul
Hamrun
1 : 2
NSI Runavik
09 Jul
NSI Runavik
1 : 1
Hamrun
15 May
Valletta
0 : 2
Hamrun
09 May
Marsaxlokk
2 : 1
Hamrun
02 May
Valletta
2 : 1
Hamrun
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Floriana1174020:725
2Hamrun1164116:422
3Marsaxlokk1154212:1219
4Naxxar Lions1153320:1818
5Valletta1145216:717
6Gzira1152414:1217
7Sliema1144310:1116
8Birkirkara1134412:1213
9Hibernians1132611:1711
10Zabbar1124513:1510
11Tarxien111379:216
12Mosta FC111197:244
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Second stage - Top 6)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Second stage - Play Out)