Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hibernians vs Hamrun

Malta Malta

Premier League 2025/2026 Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Robert J.
16'
Diakite A.
23'
Cleiton

AI Match Summary

Hamrun in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hamrun.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Hibernians
30%
Draws
58%
Hamrun
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hamrun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hamrun lately — more wins on the board than Hibernians.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Hamrun taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Hibernians Clean Sheet 17%
Hamrun Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hibernians Hamrun
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.2 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 Premier League
Hibernians vs Hamrun
0:1
Feb 10, 2026 Super Cup
Hamrun vs Hibernians
1:2
Sep 27, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Hibernians
2:0
May 14, 2025 FA Trophy
Hamrun vs Hibernians
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Premier League
Hibernians vs Hamrun
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hibernians Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Hamrun Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbong J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hibernians 15 / 100
Hamrun 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hibernians Hamrun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamrun Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hibernians found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Hamrun let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Hibernians stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hibernians VS Hamrun
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Hibernians

(Home)
20 Sept
Hibernians
0 : 4
Floriana
12 Sept
Birkirkara
1 : 1
Hibernians
02 Sept
Hibernians
0 : 2
Valletta
28 Aug
Hibernians
1 : 1
Zabbar
21 Aug
Marsaxlokk
1 : 0
Hibernians
Page 1 of 6

Hamrun

(Away)
18 Sept
Hamrun
4 : 1
Marsaxlokk
11 Sept
Birzebbuga
0 : 2
Hamrun
06 Sept
Zabbar
1 : 2
Hamrun
29 Aug
Hamrun
1 : 1
Floriana
22 Aug
Birkirkara
1 : 0
Hamrun
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Floriana 11 7 4 0 20:7 25
2 Hamrun 11 6 4 1 16:4 22
3 Marsaxlokk 11 5 4 2 12:12 19
4 Naxxar Lions 11 5 3 3 20:18 18
5 Valletta 11 4 5 2 16:7 17
6 Gzira 11 5 2 4 14:12 17
7 Sliema 11 4 4 3 10:11 16
8 Birkirkara 11 3 4 4 12:12 13
9 Hibernians 11 3 2 6 11:17 11
10 Zabbar 11 2 4 5 13:15 10
11 Tarxien 11 1 3 7 9:21 6
12 Mosta FC 11 1 1 9 7:24 4
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Second stage - Top 6)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Second stage - Play Out)