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Hills United vs Blacktown Spartans

Australia Australia

NSW League One 2025
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AI Match Summary

Hills United play Blacktown Spartans in the NSW League One 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Hills United averaged 1.79 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. Blacktown Spartans averaged 2.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. In past meetings, Hills United won 1, Blacktown Spartans won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Hills United and 2.31 for Blacktown Spartans. This points to a Blacktown Spartans double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Hills United
20%
Draws
48%
Blacktown Spartans
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Blacktown Spartans

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Hills United picked up more points recently compared to Blacktown Spartans.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 2.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 74%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Hills United Clean Sheet 10%
Blacktown Spartans Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hills United Blacktown Spartans
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 18
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.79 2.43
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 NSW League One
Hills United vs Blacktown Spartans
1:1
Feb 6, 2026 NSW League One
Blacktown Spartans vs Hills United
4:1
Aug 30, 2025 NSW League One
Hills United vs Blacktown Spartans
2:3
May 16, 2025 NSW League One
Blacktown Spartans vs Hills United
2:1
Jul 29, 2023 NSW League One
Hills United vs Blacktown Spartans
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hills United Compare

Top Goalscorer Lal M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Petratos D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Blacktown Spartans Compare

Top Goalscorer Chapple R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ellem D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hills United 31 / 100
Blacktown Spartans 45 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hills United Blacktown Spartans

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Blacktown Spartans or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.8%
1.47
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hills United attacking → ← attacking Blacktown Spartans

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hills United scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Blacktown Spartans let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Hills United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Blacktown Spartans lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 59
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 3.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1UNSW30178557:3159
2SD Raiders30184852:3358
3Blacktown Spartans301731052:4554
4Rydalmere Lions30156964:4451
5Newcastle Jets U2330157872:4949
6Northern Tigers301541157:3749
7Inter Lions301361144:3845
8Bulls Academy301110946:4743
9Hills United301151442:4138
10Bankstown City Lions FC301141538:4537
11Hakoah Sydney30981353:6335
12Canterbury Bankstown FC307131036:4434
13Dulwich Hill30941737:6731
14Macarthur Rams30781526:5029
15Bonnyrigg White Eagles30771638:5828
16Mounties Wanderers FC30671730:5225