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Stadium Background

HJK vs Gnistan

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Bolt Arena, Helsinki
HJK Logo

HJK

2 - 3
FT
Gnistan Logo

Gnistan

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Haarala S.
35'
Sub
Juricka M. In: Lyberopoulos O.
Out: Juricka M.
45' Event
Tikkanen V.
Assist: Montano L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gnistan in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gnistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
HJK
30%
Draws
35%
Gnistan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • HJK have won more games recently than Gnistan.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
HJK Clean Sheet 18%
Gnistan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HJK Gnistan
Matches Played 32 27
Wins 18 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 2.22 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Veikkausliiga
HJK vs Gnistan
2:3
Apr 18, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs HJK
0:3
Mar 10, 2026 Club Friendly
HJK vs Gnistan
3:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liiga Cup
HJK vs Gnistan
3:1
Nov 3, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs HJK
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HJK Compare

Top Goalscorer Haarala S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tikkanen V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Gnistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Akinyemi A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Perez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HJK 32 / 100
Gnistan 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HJK Gnistan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: HJK scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Gnistan conceded in 78% of 27 recent games.

Solid form: HJK remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

HJK VS Gnistan
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

HJK

(Home)
09 Sept
HJK
2 : 1
Inter Turku
05 Sept
Inter Turku
1 : 0
HJK
31 Aug
Ilves
1 : 2
HJK
23 Aug
HJK
2 : 3
Gnistan
16 Aug
HJK
3 : 0
Jaro
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Gnistan

(Away)
08 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
KuPS
31 Aug
Gnistan
1 : 1
TPS
23 Aug
HJK
2 : 3
Gnistan
17 Aug
Gnistan
3 : 2
Ilves
07 Aug
SJK
2 : 2
Gnistan
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)