Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Moller L.
Assist: Ring A.
34'
34'
Tikkanen V.
36'
36'
Sub
Moller L. In: Lyons-Foster B.
Out: Moller L.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
20%
48%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ilves
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to HJK lately — more wins on the board than Ilves.
- Ilves are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- HJK have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor HJK, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
HJK Clean Sheet 17%
Ilves Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | HJK | Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 31 |
| Wins | 15 | 14 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.25 | 1.74 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 31, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs HJK
1:2
Jul 1, 2026 Suomen Cup
HJK vs Ilves
2:1
May 16, 2026 Veikkausliiga
HJK vs Ilves
2:2
Oct 30, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs HJK
3:1
Sep 29, 2025 Veikkausliiga
HJK vs Ilves
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
HJK Compare
Top Goalscorer Moller L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Cicale A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Ilves Compare
Top Goalscorer Hytonen T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
HJK 12 / 100
Ilves 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
HJK Ilves
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ilves Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:7
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
HJK scored in 75% of their last 28 games.
Ilves's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.
Recent resilience: HJK stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
HJK VS Ilves
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
HJK
(Home) 18 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1 HJK
13 Sept
KuPS
0 : 0 HJK
09 Sept
HJK
2 : 1 Inter Turku
05 Sept
Inter Turku
1 : 0 HJK
31 Aug
Ilves
1 : 2 HJK
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
HJK
2 : 1 Inter Turku
23 Aug
HJK
2 : 3 Gnistan
16 Aug
HJK
3 : 0 Jaro
06 Aug
HJK
1 : 1 Motherwell
26 Jul
HJK
1 : 0 TPS
Page 1 of 3
Ilves
(Away) 03 Oct
Ilves
3 : 0 Haka
19 Sept
TPS
0 : 3 Ilves
12 Sept
Ilves
3 : 1 Lahti
08 Sept
Ilves
2 : 0 Jaro
31 Aug
Ilves
1 : 2 HJK
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
TPS
0 : 3 Ilves
17 Aug
Gnistan
3 : 2 Ilves
06 Aug
Rijeka
1 : 0 Ilves
02 Aug
AC Oulu
1 : 0 Ilves
23 Jul
Stjarnan
1 : 0 Ilves
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
FC Germania Helsinki 2
Jokerit FC 4
Mando United 0
HIFK 16
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit / Lauttasaari 3
Toolon Taisto 4
Tuusulan Palloseura 0
JaPS 2
Stapa de Royale 2
Loiske Lempaala 1
HPS II 1
PK-35 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
KuPS -
Karhu-Futis 1
Leki 6
SalPa 2 0
VPS 11
TPS 2 1
MaPS 4
VaKP 0
Abo IFK 6
Toukolan Teras 0
Valtti 1
FC SUMU / SOB 2
EPS 3
FC Kangasala 1
EIF Academy 2
Lasten 0
Haka 3
VPV 0
SJK Akatemia 3
Santa Claus 1
OLS Oulu 9
Rollon Pojat 3
KaPa 1924 2
VIFK 4
KPV Kokkola 5
Kajaanin Haka 0
VPS 2 4
HAPK 1
SJK 6
NiemU 0
PEPO 1
Vaajakoski 0
JJK Jyvaskyla 1
Inter Turku -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LappBK 1
Lapuan Virkia Lapua 8
Heinapaan Hanhet 24 0
JS Hercules 10
MPS 0
EBK 7
POHU 3
Gnistan 0
VG-62 Naantali 1
Narpes Kraft 3
TPV 0
Tampere Utd 2
Kuopion Elo 0
Huima / Urho 10
Lahden Reipas 1
KuPS Akatemia 2
POHU/Hurjin 0
Atlantis 8
LePa 1
Honka 4
FC Futura 4
GrIFK 1
JaPS Akatemia 0
VJS 7
HauPa 2
GBK Kokkola 3
AC Oulu 1
Jaro 2
Ylivieska 2
JBK 1
FC Kiisto Vaasa 1
RoPS Rovaniemi 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
HJK -
VJS 2 4
LoPa 1
Keski-Uusimaa 2
KaPa 3
PoPo 2
PK-37 1
KoPa 0
MyPa 5
AC Estudiantes 0
PIF Pargas 4
TPV 2 0
Pallo-Iirot 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ilves -
Fish United 0
SalPa 4
Ekenas IF 1
TPS 2
Gilla FC 2
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ) 5
Ylojarvi United 0
HJS 7
HPS 3
NJS 0
Kiffen 3 0
Mariehamn 5
Gnistan/M35 3
TiPS U21 2
Kiffen 1
PuiU Helsinki 2
KyPa 0
Union Plaani 4
KTP 1
Lahti 3
JIPPO II 0
JPS Jyvaskyla 2
Jippo 1
Mikkelin 2
1/32-finals
Jokerit FC 0
HIFK 5
Toolon Taisto 1
JaPS 9
Stapa de Royale 1
PK-35 8
TBD -
KuPS -
Leki 1
VPS 9
MaPS 0
Abo IFK 1
Valtti 0
EPS 2
EIF Academy 0
Haka 7
SJK Akatemia 2
OLS Oulu 1
Rollon Pojat 0
KPV Kokkola 4
VPS 2 1
SJK 6
PEPO 2
JJK Jyvaskyla 1
Inter Turku -
TBD -
Lapuan Virkia Lapua 1
JS Hercules 4
EBK 5
POHU 4
Narpes Kraft 0
Tampere Utd 6
Huima / Urho 0
KuPS Akatemia 4
Atlantis 3
Honka 4
FC Futura 2
VJS 3
GBK Kokkola 0
Jaro 2
Ylivieska 0
RoPS Rovaniemi 1
TBD -
HJK -
VJS 2 1
KaPa 3
PoPo 1
MyPa 4
PIF Pargas 0
Pallo-Iirot 2
TBD -
Ilves -
SalPa 1
TPS 2
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ) 0
HJS 1
HPS 1
Mariehamn 2
Gnistan/M35 1
PuiU Helsinki 2
Union Plaani 2
Lahti 4
JPS Jyvaskyla 3
Mikkelin 5
1/16-finals
HIFK 1
JaPS 3
PK-35 0
KuPS 2
VPS 7
Abo IFK 0
EPS 0
Haka 4
SJK Akatemia 2
KPV Kokkola 0
SJK 3
PEPO 0
Inter Turku 8
JS Hercules 0
EBK 3
Tampere Utd 2
KuPS Akatemia 0
Honka 1
VJS 5
Jaro 3
RoPS Rovaniemi 0
HJK 4
KaPa 1
MyPa 2
Pallo-Iirot 0
Ilves 4
TPS 3
HJS 0
Mariehamn 3
PuiU Helsinki 0
Lahti 3
Mikkelin 1
1/8-finals
JaPS 0
KuPS 1
VPS 4
Haka 0
SJK Akatemia 0
SJK 5
Inter Turku 2
EBK 1
Honka 5
VJS 1
HJK 11
MyPa 1
Ilves 1
TPS 0
Mariehamn 0
Lahti 1
Quarter-finals
KuPS 0
VPS 1
SJK 1
Inter Turku 2
Honka 1
HJK 7
Ilves 5
Lahti 2
Semi-finals
VPS 2
Inter Turku 3
HJK 2
Ilves 1
Final
Inter Turku 1
HJK 0
