Sport Picks

Stadium Background

HJK vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Bolt Arena, Helsinki
HJK Logo

HJK

1 - 0
FT
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Andersson L.
28'
Nurmi N.
40'
Lingman L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

HJK in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored HJK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
HJK
20%
Draws
29%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: HJK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Mariehamn haven't matched HJK's recent run of results.
  • Model gives HJK a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors HJK here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
HJK Clean Sheet 68%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HJK Mariehamn
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 6
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.31 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs HJK
0:4
May 30, 2026 Veikkausliiga
HJK vs Mariehamn
1:0
Jan 16, 2026 Liiga Cup
HJK vs Mariehamn
0:1
Aug 24, 2025 Veikkausliiga
HJK vs Mariehamn
8:2
May 24, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs HJK
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HJK 68 / 100
Mariehamn 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HJK Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HJK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: HJK scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

HJK went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

HJK VS Mariehamn
1.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

HJK

(Home)
16 Aug
HJK
3 : 0
Jaro
13 Aug
Motherwell
2 : 0
HJK
09 Aug
AC Oulu
0 : 1
HJK
06 Aug
HJK
1 : 1
Motherwell
03 Aug
SJK
3 : 0
HJK
Page 1 of 6

Mariehamn

(Away)
15 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
SJK
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
25 Jul
Mariehamn
1 : 1
AC Oulu
20 Jul
Mariehamn
0 : 2
Lahti
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 20 12 7 1 36:18 43
2 Inter Turku 20 10 8 2 28:16 38
3 HJK 20 10 4 6 32:23 34
4 Gnistan 20 9 5 6 32:26 32
5 VPS 20 8 6 6 28:21 30
6 AC Oulu 20 9 3 8 24:25 30
7 TPS 20 8 5 7 27:22 29
8 Lahti 20 7 5 8 23:18 26
9 Ilves 20 7 4 9 33:34 25
10 SJK 20 4 6 10 24:31 18
11 Jaro 20 3 6 11 18:41 15
12 Mariehamn 20 1 5 14 11:41 8
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)