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HNK Gorica vs Varazdin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Frigan J.
46'
Sub
Custovic K. In: Braut F.
Out: Custovic K.
50'
Lacoux T.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this HNL matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
HNK Gorica
35%
Draws
28%
Varazdin
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: HNK Gorica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Varazdin have won more games recently than HNK Gorica.
  • Model gives Varazdin a 28% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
HNK Gorica Clean Sheet 14%
Varazdin Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HNK Gorica Varazdin
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 17
Draws 6 6
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.21 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.41 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Varazdin
2:2
Apr 3, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs HNK Gorica
1:1
Mar 4, 2026 Croatian Cup
Varazdin vs HNK Gorica
1:3
Jan 26, 2026 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Varazdin
1:2
Oct 19, 2025 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Varazdin
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HNK Gorica Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogojevic B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cvijanovic I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Varazdin Compare

Top Goalscorer Mamic L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Akrap V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HNK Gorica 27 / 100
Varazdin 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HNK Gorica Varazdin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varazdin Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Solid form: HNK Gorica remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: HNK Gorica scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Varazdin's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

HNK Gorica VS Varazdin
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

HNK Gorica

(Home)
02 Oct
HNK Gorica
3 : 3
Bravo
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
09 Sept
Uskok Klis
1 : 3
HNK Gorica
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Varazdin

(Away)
02 Oct
Aluminij
0 : 0
Varazdin
19 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Osijek
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
09 Sept
Zagora
0 : 4
Varazdin
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)