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Hoffenheim vs Hamburger - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga SNP Arena, Sinsheim
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hoffenheim host Hamburger in the Bundesliga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Hamburger have shipped 1.75 goals a game lately, while Hoffenheim have conceded 1.86 and scored 1.9. Head-to-head, Hoffenheim have won 3 to Hamburger's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 25, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 2.25 vs 1.44, favoring Hoffenheim. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Hoffenheim
15%
Draws
57%
Hamburger
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamburger

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hoffenheim come out ahead of Hamburger on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Hoffenheim's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 89%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Hoffenheim Clean Sheet 16%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hoffenheim Hamburger
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.9 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Hoffenheim
1:2
Dec 13, 2025 Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger
4:1
Apr 14, 2018 Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger
2:0
Nov 26, 2017 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Hoffenheim
3:0
Apr 8, 2017 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Hoffenheim
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hoffenheim 75 / 100
Hamburger 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hoffenheim Hamburger

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hoffenheim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hoffenheim scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Hamburger has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Hamburger has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hoffenheim VS Hamburger
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hoffenheim

(Home)
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
17 Sept
OFI Crete
2 : 0
Hoffenheim
12 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 1
VfB Stuttgart
05 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Dortmund
29 Aug
1. FC Koln
3 : 2
Hoffenheim
Page 1 of 6

Hamburger

(Away)
19 Sept
Hamburger
2 : 1
1. FC Koln
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0
Hamburger
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0
Hamburger
24 Aug
Verl
0 : 3
Hamburger
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)