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Hogo Hertha Wels vs A. Salzburg

Austria Austria

2. Liga 2025/2026 Huber-Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hogo Hertha Wels play A. Salzburg in the 2. Liga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Hogo Hertha Wels averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. A. Salzburg averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Hogo Hertha Wels won 2, A. Salzburg won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 6, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Hogo Hertha Wels and 1.50 for A. Salzburg. This points to a A. Salzburg double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Hogo Hertha Wels
28%
Draws
37%
A. Salzburg
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: A. Salzburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Hogo Hertha Wels picked up more points recently compared to A. Salzburg.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Hogo Hertha Wels Clean Sheet 16%
A. Salzburg Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hogo Hertha Wels A. Salzburg
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 12 12
Draws 6 10
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.61 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.43 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 2. Liga
Hogo Hertha Wels vs A. Salzburg
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 2. Liga
A. Salzburg vs Hogo Hertha Wels
4:2
Jan 25, 2025 Club Friendly
A. Salzburg vs Hogo Hertha Wels
0:2
Feb 26, 2022 Club Friendly
Hogo Hertha Wels vs A. Salzburg
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hogo Hertha Wels Compare

Top Goalscorer Keckeisen N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

A. Salzburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Sorda M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hogo Hertha Wels 35 / 100
A. Salzburg 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hogo Hertha Wels A. Salzburg

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: A. Salzburg or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hogo Hertha Wels attacking → ← attacking A. Salzburg

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hogo Hertha Wels scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

A. Salzburg let in goals in 62% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Hogo Hertha Wels went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

A. Salzburg lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 46
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1A. Lustenau28166640:2654
2St. Polten28165744:2653
3Admira281212450:2948
4Floridsdorfer AC Wien28146842:1848
5FC Liefering28138747:4147
6Amstetten281111641:3444
7First Vienna281171030:2540
8Austria Vienna (Am)281161133:4039
9A. Salzburg28910936:3737
10Hogo Hertha Wels28961336:3733
11Rapid Vienna II28951433:4532
12A. Klagenfurt28961333:4430
13Kapfenberg28841631:5328
14Sturm II28561725:4521
15SW Bregenz283101536:5716
16Stripfing00000:00