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Holbaek vs Naesby - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Denmark Denmark

3rd Division
Holbaek Logo

Holbaek

3 - 2
FT
Naesby Logo

Naesby

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
El Haddouchi K.
25' Event
Schou Jorgensen M.
30' Event
Schou Jorgensen M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Holbaek in this 3rd Division matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Holbaek.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Holbaek
20%
Draws
23%
Naesby
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Holbaek

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Naesby haven't matched Holbaek's recent run of results.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Holbaek taking it.
  • Regular 3rd Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Holbaek Clean Sheet 13%
Naesby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Holbaek Naesby
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 22 13
Draws 2 5
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 2.45 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 24, 2026 3rd Division
Naesby vs Holbaek
1:2
Aug 29, 2026 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Naesby
3:2
Mar 7, 2026 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Naesby
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 3rd Division
Naesby vs Holbaek
2:0
May 24, 2025 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Naesby
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Holbaek Compare

Top Goalscorer El Haddouchi K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grunwaldt F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Naesby Compare

Top Goalscorer Schou Jorgensen M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holbaek 66 / 100
Naesby 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Holbaek Naesby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Holbaek Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Holbaek scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Naesby let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Holbaek remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Holbaek VS Naesby
2.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Holbaek

(Home)
31 Oct
Holbaek
0 : 1
Vanlose
24 Oct
Naesby
1 : 2
Holbaek
17 Oct
Holbaek
4 : 0
Holstebro
10 Oct
Vanlose
0 : 0
Holbaek
03 Oct
Holbaek
2 : 1
ASA Aarhus
Page 1 of 6

Naesby

(Away)
31 Oct
Bronshoj
2 : 1
Naesby
24 Oct
Naesby
1 : 2
Holbaek
17 Oct
Naesby
2 : 2
Vanlose
10 Oct
BK Frem
2 : 0
Naesby
03 Oct
Naesby
4 : 0
Holstebro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Holbaek 14 9 2 3 32:20 29
2 Bronshoj 14 8 4 2 29:17 28
3 Vanlose 14 7 6 1 20:11 27
4 Helsingor 14 7 3 4 22:17 24
5 Horsholm-Usserod 14 6 4 4 32:24 22
6 Naesby 14 5 3 6 24:22 18
7 Ishoj IF 14 5 3 6 17:22 18
8 ASA Aarhus 14 5 2 7 18:21 17
9 Sundby 14 5 1 8 23:24 16
10 BK Frem 14 3 6 5 23:23 15
11 Holstebro 14 4 1 9 18:37 13
12 Ringsted 14 1 3 10 17:37 6
Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)
Relegation - 3rd Division (Relegation Group)