Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Holbaek vs Naesby

Denmark Denmark

3rd Division
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
El Haddouchi K.
25' Event
Schou Jorgensen M.
30' Event
Schou Jorgensen M.

AI Match Summary

Holbaek in this 3rd Division matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Holbaek.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Holbaek
15%
Draws
21%
Naesby
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Holbaek

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Naesby haven't matched Holbaek's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Holbaek taking it.
  • Regular 3rd Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Holbaek Clean Sheet 10%
Naesby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Holbaek Naesby
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 21 16
Draws 3 4
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 2.45 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Naesby
3:2
Mar 7, 2026 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Naesby
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 3rd Division
Naesby vs Holbaek
2:0
May 24, 2025 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Naesby
2:2
May 3, 2025 3rd Division
Naesby vs Holbaek
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Holbaek Compare

Top Goalscorer El Haddouchi K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grunwaldt F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Naesby Compare

Top Goalscorer Schou Jorgensen M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holbaek 34 / 100
Naesby 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Holbaek Naesby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Holbaek scored in 97% of their last 29 outings.

Naesby's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Solid form: Holbaek remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Holbaek VS Naesby
2.75 Goals Scored 2.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Holbaek

(Home)
18 Sept
Holbaek
5 : 2
Ringsted
13 Sept
Horsholm-Usserod
3 : 1
Holbaek
05 Sept
Ishoj IF
0 : 4
Holbaek
29 Aug
Holbaek
3 : 2
Naesby
21 Aug
Bronshoj
1 : 4
Holbaek
Page 1 of 6

Naesby

(Away)
19 Sept
Naesby
1 : 1
Helsingor
16 Sept
Naesby
2 : 3
Horsens
13 Sept
ASA Aarhus
1 : 0
Naesby
05 Sept
Naesby
4 : 3
Horsholm-Usserod
29 Aug
Holbaek
3 : 2
Naesby
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Holbaek 8 6 1 1 23:12 19
2 Bronshoj 8 5 2 1 16:8 17
3 Vanlose 8 4 3 1 14:8 15
4 Helsingor 8 4 2 2 12:10 14
5 Holstebro 8 4 1 3 15:15 13
6 ASA Aarhus 8 4 1 3 11:11 13
7 Naesby 8 3 2 3 14:13 11
8 Horsholm-Usserod 8 2 3 3 16:16 9
9 BK Frem 8 2 2 4 16:15 8
10 Sundby 8 2 1 5 11:15 7
11 Ishoj IF 8 1 1 6 4:16 4
12 Ringsted 8 1 1 6 10:23 4
Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)
Relegation - 3rd Division (Relegation Group)