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Holbaek vs Sundby

Denmark Denmark

3rd Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Olsen M.
65' Event
Olsen M.
84'
Tumturk H.

AI Match Summary

The 3rd Division 2025/2026 game between Holbaek and Sundby finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Holbaek.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Holbaek
15%
Draws
34%
Sundby
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Holbaek

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Medium Confidence
  • Holbaek carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Holbaek Clean Sheet 18%
Sundby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Holbaek Sundby
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 18 11
Draws 4 7
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 2.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 4, 2026 3rd Division
Sundby vs Holbaek
1:5
May 2, 2026 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Sundby
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Sundby
2:2
Aug 22, 2025 3rd Division
Sundby vs Holbaek
2:0
Mar 28, 2025 3rd Division
Holbaek vs Sundby
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Holbaek Compare

Top Goalscorer Olsen M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Sundby Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holbaek 32 / 100
Sundby 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Holbaek Sundby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Holbaek scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Sundby has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Holbaek remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Holbaek VS Sundby
2.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Holbaek

(Home)
04 Aug
Holbaek
1 : 2
AB Copenhagen
01 Aug
Holbaek
2 : 1
BK Frem
18 Jul
Hellerup
1 : 3
Holbaek
14 Jul
Boldklubben 1893
3 : 1
Holbaek
13 Jun
Holbaek
1 : 0
Vejgaard
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Sundby

(Away)
05 Aug
Slagelse
0 : 4
Sundby
01 Aug
Naesby
2 : 1
Sundby
25 Jul
Sundby
2 : 1
Ringsted
21 Jul
Fremad Amager
3 : 1
Sundby
18 Jul
Sundby
1 : 3
Nykobing
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