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Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

2. Bundesliga Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Holstein Kiel host Hertha Berlin in the 2. Bundesliga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Holstein Kiel have averaged 1.48 scored and 1.59 conceded recently, against Hertha Berlin's 2.7 scored and 1.43 conceded. Past meetings favor Holstein Kiel slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 25, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.31 - 2.06) back Hertha Berlin to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Holstein Kiel
30%
Draws
51%
Hertha Berlin
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hertha Berlin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hertha Berlin come out ahead of Holstein Kiel on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 10%
Hertha Berlin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Holstein Kiel Hertha Berlin
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 18
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.48 2.7
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 2. Bundesliga
Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin
0:1
Mar 1, 2024 2. Bundesliga
Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel
2:2
Sep 24, 2023 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin
2:3
Mar 21, 2019 Club Friendly
Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holstein Kiel 30 / 100
Hertha Berlin 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Holstein Kiel Hertha Berlin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hertha Berlin Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Holstein Kiel found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Hertha Berlin conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Holstein Kiel stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Holstein Kiel VS Hertha Berlin
1.5 Goals Scored 2.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Holstein Kiel

(Home)
03 Oct
Holstein Kiel
3 : 1
Viborg
19 Sept
Holstein Kiel
1 : 1
VfL Osnabruck
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0
Holstein Kiel
05 Sept
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2
Nurnberg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0
Holstein Kiel
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Hertha Berlin

(Away)
02 Oct
Augsburg
2 : 2
Hertha Berlin
29 Sept
Hertha Zehlendorf
1 : 3
Hertha Berlin
19 Sept
Dresden
1 : 2
Hertha Berlin
13 Sept
VfL Osnabruck
1 : 3
Hertha Berlin
06 Sept
Hertha Berlin
2 : 1
Magdeburg
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hertha Berlin 6 6 0 0 17:7 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16:6 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14:12 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15:8 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11:9 10
7 Energie Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14:13 8
8 St. Pauli 6 1 4 1 8:8 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5:6 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
11 VfL Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9:12 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9:11 6
13 Arminia Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10:12 5
14 Karlsruher 6 1 2 3 6:12 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12:13 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7:10 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8:14 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5:13 4
Promotion - Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)