Sport Picks
Holywell Town FC vs Caernarfon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
Cymru Premier Bartons North Wales Stadium, Holywell 
Match Events
13'
13'
Bradley S.
35'
35'
Clarke Z.
45'
45'
Murtas F.
AI Match Summary
Caernarfon in this Cymru Premier matchup, with the score ending 3-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caernarfon.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
8%
30%
62%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caernarfon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
62%
/ High Confidence
- Holywell Town FC haven't matched Caernarfon's recent run of results.
- 62% — that's where the model lands on Caernarfon taking it.
- Regular Cymru Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Caernarfon here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Holywell Town FC Clean Sheet 10%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Holywell Town FC | Caernarfon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 15 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 15 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.83 | 2.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.34 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 3.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 28, 2026 Cymru Premier
Holywell Town FC vs Caernarfon
3:5
Sep 10, 2025 League Cup
Caernarfon vs Holywell Town FC
3:2
Mar 24, 2018 Cymru Alliance
Holywell Town FC vs Caernarfon
1:1
Nov 18, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Caernarfon vs Holywell Town FC
4:2
Mar 18, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Caernarfon vs Holywell Town FC
6:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Holywell Town FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Murtas F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hughes C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Caernarfon Compare
Top Goalscorer Clarke Z.
3 Goals Assists Leader Bradley S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Holywell Town FC 10 / 100
Caernarfon 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Holywell Town FC Caernarfon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Holywell Town FC scored in 86% of their last 29 games.
H2H data points to 5.80 goals as a typical output.
Caernarfon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Solid form: Holywell Town FC remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Holywell Town FC VS Caernarfon
1.13 Goals Scored 3.63
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Holywell Town FC
(Home) 09 Oct
Holywell Town FC
1 : 6 TNS
03 Oct
Ammanford Town
2 : 1 Holywell Town FC
26 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1 Briton Ferry
18 Sept
Haverfordwest
1 : 0 Holywell Town FC
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5 Colwyn Bay
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Holywell Town FC
1 : 6 TNS
26 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1 Briton Ferry
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5 Colwyn Bay
04 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1 Trefelin
28 Aug
Holywell Town FC
3 : 5 Caernarfon
Page 1 of 3
Caernarfon
(Away) 09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2 Caernarfon
03 Oct
Caernarfon
0 : 1 Barry Town
26 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2 Caernarfon
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1 Cambrian United
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1 Caernarfon
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2 Caernarfon
26 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2 Caernarfon
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1 Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5 Caernarfon
28 Aug
Holywell Town FC
3 : 5 Caernarfon
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TNS | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 44:6 | 37 |
| 2 | Connahs Q. | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 30:9 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25:11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 37:15 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22:15 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 28:23 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff Metropolitan University | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24:16 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK Broughton FC | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 25:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21:33 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno FC | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 22:23 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12:22 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford Town | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10:32 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12:25 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8:31 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town FC | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14:44 | 2 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)
