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Home Farm vs Mervue United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

National League
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Home Farm host Mervue United in the National League. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Mervue United have shipped 1.35 goals a game lately, while Home Farm have conceded 1.5 and scored 1.36. Past meetings favor Home Farm slightly — 1-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 12, 2026, ending 1:6. Model xG sits at 2.13 vs 1.56, favoring Mervue United. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Home Farm
30%
Draws
33%
Mervue United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Home Farm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mervue United come out ahead of Home Farm on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Home Farm's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Home Farm Clean Sheet 15%
Mervue United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Home Farm Mervue United
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 8 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.36 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 National League
Mervue United vs Home Farm
1:6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Home Farm 84 / 100
Mervue United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Home Farm Mervue United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Home Farm Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 7.00 goals.

Home Farm has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Home Farm found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Mervue United has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Home Farm VS Mervue United
2.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Home Farm

(Home)
03 Oct
Lucan Utd
2 : 2
Home Farm
26 Sept
Home Farm
4 : 0
Cockhill
12 Sept
Mervue United
1 : 6
Home Farm
05 Sept
Cockhill
0 : 2
Home Farm
29 Aug
Bonagee
2 : 2
Home Farm
Page 1 of 6

Mervue United

(Away)
03 Oct
Bonagee
1 : 6
Mervue United
26 Sept
Mervue United
0 : 0
Lucan Utd
19 Sept
Mervue United
2 : 1
Bonagee
12 Sept
Mervue United
1 : 6
Home Farm
05 Sept
Lucan Utd
1 : 2
Mervue United
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Home Farm 5 3 2 0 16:5 11
2 Mervue United 6 3 2 1 12:10 11
3 Lucan Utd 5 2 2 1 6:4 8
4 Bonagee 4 0 1 3 4:11 1
5 Cockhill 4 0 1 3 1:9 1
Promotion - National League (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salthill 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
2 Letterkenny Rovers 5 2 1 2 12:10 7
3 TU Dublin 5 1 3 1 10:12 6
4 Mayo FC 5 2 0 3 5:9 6
5 St Francis 4 1 2 1 6:4 5
Promotion - National League (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Villa FC 5 4 1 0 20:6 13
2 CK United FC 6 3 2 1 12:12 11
3 University College Cork 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
4 Killarney Celtic 4 0 1 3 6:10 1
5 Newbridge Town 5 0 1 4 5:17 1
Promotion - National League (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams