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Stadium Background

Homs Al Fidaa vs Foutoua

Syria Syria

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Homs Al Fidaa enters this Premier League fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 62%. Homs Al Fidaa averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in recent matches. Foutoua shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Homs Al Fidaa, 2 wins for Foutoua, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 24.06.26 ended in a 4:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.63 for Homs Al Fidaa and 0.69 for Foutoua, suggesting the primary value lies in the Homs Al Fidaa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Homs Al Fidaa
15%
Draws
23%
Foutoua
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Homs Al Fidaa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Homs Al Fidaa picked up more points recently compared to Foutoua.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Homs Al Fidaa Clean Sheet 28%
Foutoua Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Homs Al Fidaa Foutoua
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 22 9
Draws 6 3
Losses 2 18
Goals Scored 1.83 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.4 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

24.06.26 Premier League
Homs Al Fidaa vs Foutoua
4:0
10.03.26 Premier League
Foutoua vs Homs Al Fidaa
0:3
30.05.25 Premier League
Foutoua vs Homs Al Fidaa
2:1
05.04.24 Premier League
Homs Al Fidaa vs Foutoua
0:0
06.12.23 Premier League
Foutoua vs Homs Al Fidaa
2:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Homs Al Fidaa

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Foutoua

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Homs Al Fidaa Compare

Top Goalscorer Sandy S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mardikian M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Foutoua Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Homs Al Fidaa 61 / 100
Foutoua 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Homs Al Fidaa Foutoua

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Homs Al Fidaa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Homs Al Fidaa & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Homs Al Fidaa is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Homs Al Fidaa 68%
Foutoua 18%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Foutoua will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Homs Al Fidaa's attacks.

Homs Al Fidaa 59%
Foutoua 24%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Homs Al Fidaa to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Homs Al Fidaa 62%
Foutoua 23%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Homs Al Fidaa vary their attacking width.

Homs Al Fidaa 65%
Foutoua 22%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Foutoua, allowing Homs Al Fidaa's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Homs Al Fidaa 56%
Foutoua 25%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Homs Al Fidaa, while Foutoua takes risks to salvage a result.

Homs Al Fidaa 71%
Foutoua 26%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Homs Al Fidaa attacking → ← attacking Foutoua

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Homs Al Fidaa have found the net in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Foutoua have conceded at least one goal in 83% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.60 goals per match.

Homs Al Fidaa remained undefeated in 5 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Foutoua suffered defeat in 4 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

72 Points in last 5 30
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Ittihad Aleppo30227183:2573
2Homs Al Fidaa30226255:1272
3Al Wahda30195653:2462
4Al Karamah30177655:3058
5Al Taliya301211732:2447
6Hottin301361133:3745
7Tishreen301111842:3444
8Al Jaish301011923:3041
9Damascus Al-Ahli301161337:4439
10Horriya301051530:3435
11Al Shorta30891329:4733
12Foutoua30931836:5330
13Umayya30591627:4424
14Khan Shaykhun30651926:5323
15Jableh30642027:6022
16Al-Shouleh30452114:5117