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Honduras vs Curacao

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Honduras Logo

Honduras

2 - 1
FT
Curacao Logo

Curacao

Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Gaari J.
32' Event
Alvarez J.
Assist: Arriaga K.
42' Event
Menjivar E.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Honduras
30%
Draws
54%
Curacao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Curacao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Curacao haven't matched Honduras's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Honduras have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Curacao, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Honduras Clean Sheet 15%
Curacao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Honduras Curacao
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 14 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.64 1.92
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.41 1.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 25, 2025 Gold Cup
Honduras vs Curacao
2:1
Jun 7, 2022 CONCACAF Nations League
Honduras vs Curacao
1:2
Jun 4, 2022 CONCACAF Nations League
Curacao vs Honduras
0:1
Jun 22, 2019 Gold Cup
Honduras vs Curacao
0:1
Mar 14, 1950 Central American & Caribbean Games
Curacao vs Honduras
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Honduras Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palma L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Curacao Compare

Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.84

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Honduras 31 / 100
Curacao 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Honduras Curacao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Honduras's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Curacao let in goals in 54% of their last 26 matches.

Honduras went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Honduras VS Curacao
0.57 Goals Scored 1.75
1.29 Goals Conceded 2.25
57% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Honduras

(Home)
26 Sept
Honduras
2 : 3
Suriname
07 Jun
Argentina
2 : 0
Honduras
31 Mar
Peru
2 : 2
Honduras
19 Nov
Costa Rica
0 : 0
Honduras
14 Nov
Nicaragua
2 : 0
Honduras
Page 1 of 6

Curacao

(Away)
25 Sept
Costa Rica
3 : 4
Curacao
25 Jun
Curacao
0 : 2
Ivory Coast
21 Jun
Ecuador
0 : 0
Curacao
14 Jun
Germany
7 : 1
Curacao
07 Jun
Curacao
4 : 0
Aruba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mexico 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 Costa Rica 3 2 1 0 6:4 7
3 Dominican Republic 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
4 Suriname 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Canada 3 2 1 0 9:1 7
2 Honduras 3 2 0 1 4:7 6
3 Curacao 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 El Salvador 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panama 3 3 0 0 10:3 9
2 Guatemala 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
3 Jamaica 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
4 Guadeloupe 3 0 0 3 5:10 0
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 USA 3 3 0 0 8:1 9
2 Saudi Arabia 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
3 Trinidad & Tobago 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
4 Haiti 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)