Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hong Kong vs Macau

World World

Friendly International 2025 Mong Kok Stadium, Hongkong
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Jones L.
40' Event
Merkies R.

AI Match Summary

Hong Kong in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hong Kong.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Hong Kong
15%
Draws
0%
Macau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hong Kong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Hong Kong have won more games recently than Macau.
  • Win probability leans Hong Kong's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Hong Kong have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Hong Kong Clean Sheet 68%
Macau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hong Kong Macau
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 12 3
Draws 7 2
Losses 11 22
Goals Scored 1.73 0.59
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 3.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2025 Friendly International
Hong Kong vs Macau
2:0
Sep 2, 2017 Friendly International
Hong Kong vs Macau
4:0
Nov 14, 2015 Friendly International
Hong Kong vs Macau
2:0
Jun 16, 2012 Friendly International
Macau vs Hong Kong
1:3
Oct 2, 2011 Friendly International
Hong Kong vs Macau
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hong Kong Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Merkies R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.63

Macau Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hong Kong 95 / 100
Macau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hong Kong Macau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hong Kong Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hong Kong found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Macau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Away concern: Macau has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hong Kong VS Macau
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 5
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Hong Kong

(Home)
09 Jun
Cambodia
2 : 0
Hong Kong
05 Jun
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Mongolia
31 Mar
India
2 : 1
Hong Kong
03 Jan
Guangdong XI
3 : 2
Hong Kong
28 Dec
Hong Kong
2 : 2
Guangdong XI
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Macau

(Away)
29 Mar
Macau
0 : 6
Tanzania
26 Mar
Aruba
4 : 1
Macau
19 Mar
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Macau
14 Dec
Macau
1 : 2
Guam
10 Sept
Macau
0 : 1
Brunei
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