Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hornchurch vs Maidenhead

England England

National League South
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hornchurch play Maidenhead in the National League South. It looks like a close match. Recently, Hornchurch averaged 1.72 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. Maidenhead averaged 1.45 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Hornchurch won 1, Maidenhead won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Hornchurch and 1.38 for Maidenhead. This points to a Maidenhead double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Hornchurch
30%
Draws
39%
Maidenhead
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maidenhead

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Hornchurch picked up more points recently compared to Maidenhead.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Hornchurch Clean Sheet 17%
Maidenhead Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hornchurch Maidenhead
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.72 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 National League South
Hornchurch vs Maidenhead
0:0
Dec 6, 2025 National League South
Maidenhead vs Hornchurch
2:0
Feb 16, 2013 National League South
Hornchurch vs Maidenhead
0:2
Oct 2, 2012 National League South
Maidenhead vs Hornchurch
2:4
Jan 29, 2005 National League South
Maidenhead vs Hornchurch
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hornchurch 31 / 100
Maidenhead 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hornchurch Maidenhead

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Maidenhead or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hornchurch attacking → ← attacking Maidenhead

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hornchurch scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Maidenhead let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Hornchurch went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Maidenhead lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 53
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Worthing FC462591299:5284
2Hornchurch4623121181:6481
3Torquay462481487:6280
4Dorking Wanderers4623101378:6179
5Hemel Hempstead4623101355:4879
6Weston-super-Mare462391461:4878
7Maidenhead4622111366:4177
8Maidstone4622111372:5077
9Ebbsfleet4622111373:5477
10Chelmsford4621101573:6273
11Chesham462191668:5572
12AFC Totton462062060:7966
13Dagenham & Red.4617131661:6264
14Tonbridge4616121866:6560
15Horsham FC4615141753:5459
16Slough Town461592269:8754
17Salisbury4614112150:6553
18Hampton & Richmond4614112156:7253
19Farnborough4614112172:9253
20Dover Ath.4613112260:7550
21Bath City4610132350:7743
22Chippenham Town461192653:8042
23Enfield Town469132455:8240
24Eastbourne Borough46992859:9036