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Hornchurch vs Weston-super-Mare

England England

National League South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Rees J.
61' Event
Sandat H.

AI Match Summary

Hornchurch host Weston-super-Mare in the National League South 2025/2026. Hornchurch go into this one as the clear favorite. Weston-super-Mare have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Hornchurch have conceded 0.75 and scored 1.88. Head-to-head, Hornchurch have won 3 to Weston-super-Mare's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.20 xG vs 1.00) point toward Hornchurch. Hornchurch in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Hornchurch
6%
Draws
4%
Weston-super-Mare
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Hornchurch

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Hornchurch has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Weston-super-Mare.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Hornchurch.
  • Cup tournament structure in National League South 2025/2026 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Hornchurch Clean Sheet 20%
Weston-super-Mare Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hornchurch Weston-super-Mare
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 National League South
Hornchurch vs Weston-super-Mare
2:0
Jan 24, 2026 National League South
Weston-super-Mare vs Hornchurch
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 National League South
Hornchurch vs Weston-super-Mare
3:2
Mar 29, 2025 National League South
Hornchurch vs Weston-super-Mare
2:4
Aug 31, 2024 National League South
Weston-super-Mare vs Hornchurch
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hornchurch Compare

Top Goalscorer Rees J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sandat H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Weston-super-Mare Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hornchurch 85 / 100
Weston-super-Mare 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hornchurch Weston-super-Mare

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hornchurch scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Weston-super-Mare let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Hornchurch went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Weston-super-Mare lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hornchurch VS Weston-super-Mare
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Hornchurch-
TBD-
Hemel Hempstead1
Weston-super-Mare2
Torquay-
TBD-
Dorking Wanderers2
Maidenhead0
Semi-finals
Hornchurch2
Weston-super-Mare0
Torquay4
Dorking Wanderers2
Final
Hornchurch3
Torquay2