Sport Picks

England

National League South 2025/2026 The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium

Tonbridge

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Horsham FC play Tonbridge in the National League South 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Horsham FC averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Tonbridge averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Horsham FC won 1, Tonbridge won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 14, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Horsham FC and 1.56 for Tonbridge. This points to a Tonbridge double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Horsham FC

15%

Draws

49%

Tonbridge

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tonbridge

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Horsham FC picked up more points recently compared to Tonbridge.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Horsham FC Clean Sheet 15%

Tonbridge Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Horsham FC	Tonbridge
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	9	13
Draws	6	6
Losses	14	11
Goals Scored	1.17	1.8
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.37
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 National League South

Horsham FC vs Tonbridge

Possession: 51% - 59% Cards: 0 - 2

0:1

Oct 18, 2025 National League South

Tonbridge vs Horsham FC

Possession: 44% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Apr 30, 2011 Isthmian League Premier Division

Horsham FC vs Tonbridge

Possession: 52% - 57% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Sep 4, 2010 Isthmian League Premier Division

Tonbridge vs Horsham FC

Possession: 56% - 41% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Apr 10, 2010 Isthmian League Premier Division

Horsham FC vs Tonbridge

Possession: 59% - 45% Cards: 2 - 3

0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Horsham FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Tonbridge Compare

Top Goalscorer Sutcliffe E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Horsham FC 35 / 100

Tonbridge 47 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Horsham FC Tonbridge

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tonbridge or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Horsham FC attacking → ← attacking Tonbridge

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Horsham FC scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Tonbridge let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Horsham FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Tonbridge lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 45

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Worthing FC	46	25	9	12	99:52	84
2	Hornchurch	46	23	12	11	81:64	81
3	Torquay	46	24	8	14	87:62	80
4	Dorking Wanderers	46	23	10	13	78:61	79
5	Hemel Hempstead	46	23	10	13	55:48	79
6	Weston-super-Mare	46	23	9	14	61:48	78
7	Maidenhead	46	22	11	13	66:41	77
8	Maidstone	46	22	11	13	72:50	77
9	Ebbsfleet	46	22	11	13	73:54	77
10	Chelmsford	46	21	10	15	73:62	73
11	Chesham	46	21	9	16	68:55	72
12	AFC Totton	46	20	6	20	60:79	66
13	Dagenham & Red.	46	17	13	16	61:62	64
14	Tonbridge	46	16	12	18	66:65	60
15	Horsham FC	46	15	14	17	53:54	59
16	Slough Town	46	15	9	22	69:87	54
17	Salisbury	46	14	11	21	50:65	53
18	Hampton & Richmond	46	14	11	21	56:72	53
19	Farnborough	46	14	11	21	72:92	53
20	Dover Ath.	46	13	11	22	60:75	50
21	Bath City	46	10	13	23	50:77	43
22	Chippenham Town	46	11	9	26	53:80	42
23	Enfield Town	46	9	13	24	55:82	40
24	Eastbourne Borough	46	9	9	28	59:90	36