Sport Picks

Denmark

3rd Division 2025/2026 Hørsholm Idrætspark

Horsholm-Usserod

2 - 4

Naesby

Our Tip

Match Events

Khalid A.

18'

Schou Jorgensen M.

41'

Knudsen R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The 3rd Division 2025/2026 game between Horsholm-Usserod and Naesby finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naesby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Horsholm-Usserod

Draws

90%

Naesby

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Naesby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Naesby come out ahead of Horsholm-Usserod on wins alone.
Model gives Naesby a 90% chance of winning this.
Regular 3rd Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Naesby here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%

Horsholm-Usserod Clean Sheet 20%

Naesby Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Horsholm-Usserod	Naesby
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	8	14
Draws	6	5
Losses	14	11
Goals Scored	0.88	2
Goals Conceded	2.5	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2026 3rd Division

Horsholm-Usserod vs Naesby

Possession: 51% - 49% Cards: 4 - 1

2:4

May 9, 2026 3rd Division

Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

5:0

Mar 28, 2026 3rd Division

Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

4:1

Aug 30, 2025 3rd Division

Horsholm-Usserod vs Naesby

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Horsholm-Usserod Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalid A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Naesby Compare

Top Goalscorer Schou Jorgensen M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Knudsen R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Horsholm-Usserod 10 / 100

Naesby 83 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Horsholm-Usserod Naesby

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAE Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Horsholm-Usserod scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Naesby has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Horsholm-Usserod has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Horsholm-Usserod VS Naesby

0.88 Goals Scored 2

2.5 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 50%

63% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nykobing	32	26	5	1	80:23	83
2	Frederiksberg Alliancen 2000	32	16	7	9	42:32	55
3	Naesby	32	16	5	11	63:50	53
4	Bronshoj	32	11	10	11	48:57	43
5	Vanlose	32	11	7	14	37:44	40
6	Horsholm-Usserod	32	9	6	17	47:63	33