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Horsholm-Usserod vs Naesby Prediction & H2H Stats

Denmark Denmark

3rd Division 2025/2026 Hørsholm Idrætspark, Rungsted Kyst
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Match Events

2' Event
Khalid A.
18' Event
Schou Jorgensen M.
41' Event
Knudsen R.

AI Match Summary

The 3rd Division 2025/2026 game between Horsholm-Usserod and Naesby finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naesby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Horsholm-Usserod
20%
Draws
51%
Naesby
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Naesby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Naesby come out ahead of Horsholm-Usserod on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular 3rd Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Naesby here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Horsholm-Usserod Clean Sheet 20%
Naesby Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Horsholm-Usserod Naesby
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.62 2.14
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 3rd Division
Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod
4:3
Jun 13, 2026 3rd Division
Horsholm-Usserod vs Naesby
2:4
May 9, 2026 3rd Division
Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod
5:0
Mar 28, 2026 3rd Division
Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod
4:1
Aug 30, 2025 3rd Division
Horsholm-Usserod vs Naesby
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Horsholm-Usserod Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalid A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Naesby Compare

Top Goalscorer Schou Jorgensen M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Knudsen R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Horsholm-Usserod 31 / 100
Naesby 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Horsholm-Usserod Naesby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Horsholm-Usserod Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Horsholm-Usserod scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Naesby has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Horsholm-Usserod has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Horsholm-Usserod VS Naesby
2.25 Goals Scored 2.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Horsholm-Usserod

(Home)
26 Sept
ASA Aarhus
2 : 1
Horsholm-Usserod
19 Sept
Horsholm-Usserod
1 : 1
Vanlose
16 Sept
Horsholm-Usserod
1 : 2
Aarhus Fremad
13 Sept
Horsholm-Usserod
3 : 1
Holbaek
05 Sept
Naesby
4 : 3
Horsholm-Usserod
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Naesby

(Away)
26 Sept
Ringsted
1 : 2
Naesby
19 Sept
Naesby
1 : 1
Helsingor
16 Sept
Naesby
2 : 3
Horsens
13 Sept
ASA Aarhus
1 : 0
Naesby
05 Sept
Naesby
4 : 3
Horsholm-Usserod
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nykobing 32 26 5 1 80:23 83
2 Frederiksberg Alliancen 2000 32 16 7 9 42:32 55
3 Naesby 32 16 5 11 63:50 53
4 Bronshoj 32 11 10 11 48:57 43
5 Vanlose 32 11 7 14 37:44 40
6 Horsholm-Usserod 32 9 6 17 47:63 33
Promotion - 2nd Division (Main)