Sport Picks
Match Events
15'
15'
Sheikhani B.
46'
46'
Sub
Ryhanen T. In: Heiskanen L.
Out: Ryhanen T.
51'
51'
Holmberg R.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
15%
20%
65%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mariehamn
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and HPS come out ahead of Mariehamn on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Mariehamn's way, sitting at 80%.
- HPS have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Mariehamn, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
HPS Clean Sheet 10%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | HPS | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 7 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.96 | 1.11 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.11 | 1.71 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 28, 2026 Suomen Cup
HPS vs Mariehamn
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
HPS Compare
Top Goalscorer Sheikhani B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09
Mariehamn Compare
Top Goalscorer Huttunen A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Larsson A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
HPS 10 / 100
Mariehamn 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
HPS Mariehamn
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
HPS scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
Mariehamn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Solid form: HPS remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
HPS VS Mariehamn
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
3.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
HPS
(Home) 30 Aug
Kiffen
2 : 1 HPS
22 Aug
Kiffen
5 : 1 HPS
15 Aug
HPS
0 : 3 Union Plaani
07 Aug
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ)
2 : 2 HPS
01 Aug
HPS
5 : 5 HIFK
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
HPS
0 : 3 Union Plaani
01 Aug
HPS
5 : 5 HIFK
18 Jul
HPS
5 : 2 MyPa
04 Jul
HPS
3 : 2 Lahden Reipas
12 Jun
HPS
1 : 2 Kiffen
Page 1 of 3
Mariehamn
(Away) 31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0 Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4 Mariehamn
15 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0 SJK
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0 Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0 Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4 Mariehamn
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0 Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0 Mariehamn
11 Jul
Gnistan
4 : 2 Mariehamn
04 Jul
VPS
4 : 0 Mariehamn
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
FC Germania Helsinki 2
Jokerit FC 4
Mando United 0
HIFK 16
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit / Lauttasaari 3
Toolon Taisto 4
Tuusulan Palloseura 0
JaPS 2
Stapa de Royale 2
Loiske Lempaala 1
HPS II 1
PK-35 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
KuPS -
Karhu-Futis 1
Leki 6
SalPa 2 0
VPS 11
TPS 2 1
MaPS 4
VaKP 0
Abo IFK 6
Toukolan Teras 0
Valtti 1
FC SUMU / SOB 2
EPS 3
FC Kangasala 1
EIF Academy 2
Lasten 0
Haka 3
VPV 0
SJK Akatemia 3
Santa Claus 1
OLS Oulu 9
Rollon Pojat 3
KaPa 1924 2
VIFK 4
KPV Kokkola 5
Kajaanin Haka 0
VPS 2 4
HAPK 1
SJK 6
NiemU 0
PEPO 1
Vaajakoski 0
JJK Jyvaskyla 1
Inter Turku -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LappBK 1
Lapuan Virkia Lapua 8
Heinapaan Hanhet 24 0
JS Hercules 10
MPS 0
EBK 7
POHU 3
Gnistan 0
VG-62 Naantali 1
Narpes Kraft 3
TPV 0
Tampere Utd 2
Kuopion Elo 0
Huima / Urho 10
Lahden Reipas 1
KuPS Akatemia 2
POHU/Hurjin 0
Atlantis 8
LePa 1
Honka 4
FC Futura 4
GrIFK 1
JaPS Akatemia 0
VJS 7
HauPa 2
GBK Kokkola 3
AC Oulu 1
Jaro 2
Ylivieska 2
JBK 1
FC Kiisto Vaasa 1
RoPS Rovaniemi 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
HJK -
VJS 2 4
LoPa 1
Keski-Uusimaa 2
KaPa 3
PoPo 2
PK-37 1
KoPa 0
MyPa 5
AC Estudiantes 0
PIF Pargas 4
TPV 2 0
Pallo-Iirot 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ilves -
Fish United 0
SalPa 4
Ekenas IF 1
TPS 2
Gilla FC 2
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ) 5
Ylojarvi United 0
HJS 7
HPS 3
NJS 0
Kiffen 3 0
Mariehamn 5
Gnistan/M35 3
TiPS U21 2
Kiffen 1
PuiU Helsinki 2
KyPa 0
Union Plaani 4
KTP 1
Lahti 3
JIPPO II 0
JPS Jyvaskyla 2
Jippo 1
Mikkelin 2
1/32-finals
Jokerit FC 0
HIFK 5
Toolon Taisto 1
JaPS 9
Stapa de Royale 1
PK-35 8
TBD -
KuPS -
Leki 1
VPS 9
MaPS 0
Abo IFK 1
Valtti 0
EPS 2
EIF Academy 0
Haka 7
SJK Akatemia 2
OLS Oulu 1
Rollon Pojat 0
KPV Kokkola 4
VPS 2 1
SJK 6
PEPO 2
JJK Jyvaskyla 1
Inter Turku -
TBD -
Lapuan Virkia Lapua 1
JS Hercules 4
EBK 5
POHU 4
Narpes Kraft 0
Tampere Utd 6
Huima / Urho 0
KuPS Akatemia 4
Atlantis 3
Honka 4
FC Futura 2
VJS 3
GBK Kokkola 0
Jaro 2
Ylivieska 0
RoPS Rovaniemi 1
TBD -
HJK -
VJS 2 1
KaPa 3
PoPo 1
MyPa 4
PIF Pargas 0
Pallo-Iirot 2
TBD -
Ilves -
SalPa 1
TPS 2
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ) 0
HJS 1
HPS 1
Mariehamn 2
Gnistan/M35 1
PuiU Helsinki 2
Union Plaani 2
Lahti 4
JPS Jyvaskyla 3
Mikkelin 5
1/16-finals
HIFK 1
JaPS 3
PK-35 0
KuPS 2
VPS 7
Abo IFK 0
EPS 0
Haka 4
SJK Akatemia 2
KPV Kokkola 0
SJK 3
PEPO 0
Inter Turku 8
JS Hercules 0
EBK 3
Tampere Utd 2
KuPS Akatemia 0
Honka 1
VJS 5
Jaro 3
RoPS Rovaniemi 0
HJK 4
KaPa 1
MyPa 2
Pallo-Iirot 0
Ilves 4
TPS 3
HJS 0
Mariehamn 3
PuiU Helsinki 0
Lahti 3
Mikkelin 1
1/8-finals
JaPS 0
KuPS 1
VPS 4
Haka 0
SJK Akatemia 0
SJK 5
Inter Turku 2
EBK 1
Honka 5
VJS 1
HJK 11
MyPa 1
Ilves 1
TPS 0
Mariehamn 0
Lahti 1
Quarter-finals
KuPS 0
VPS 1
SJK 1
Inter Turku 2
Honka 1
HJK 7
Ilves 5
Lahti 2
Semi-finals
VPS 2
Inter Turku 3
HJK 2
Ilves 1
Final
Inter Turku -
HJK -
