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HVV Hollandia vs Staphorst - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

HVV Hollandia host Staphorst in the Derde Divisie. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: HVV Hollandia at 1.35 goals for, 2.27 against; Staphorst at 1.48 for, 2.07 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (2.00 xG vs 2.44) point toward HVV Hollandia. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
HVV Hollandia
15%
Draws
85%
Staphorst
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Staphorst

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Staphorst at 1.48 per game, HVV Hollandia at 1.35.
  • HVV Hollandia are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
HVV Hollandia Clean Sheet 10%
Staphorst Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HVV Hollandia Staphorst
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 6 6
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 1.35 1.48
Goals Conceded 2.27 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HVV Hollandia 34 / 100
Staphorst 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HVV Hollandia Staphorst

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Staphorst's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

HVV Hollandia found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (26 games).

Staphorst lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

HVV Hollandia VS Staphorst
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
3.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

HVV Hollandia

(Home)
27 Sept
HVV Hollandia
0 : 3
USV Hercules
19 Sept
DVS '33 Ermelo
2 : 1
HVV Hollandia
12 Sept
HVV Hollandia
2 : 4
Sportlust
06 Sept
HVV Hollandia
4 : 5
TEC
02 Sept
HVV Hollandia
2 : 3
RKSV Halsteren
Page 1 of 6

Staphorst

(Away)
03 Oct
Staphorst
0 : 3
TEC
26 Sept
Sparta Nijkerk
3 : 2
Staphorst
22 Sept
Staphorst
2 : 3
Genemuiden
19 Sept
Staphorst
2 : 3
ACV Assen
12 Sept
Harkemase Boys
1 : 1
Staphorst
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Excelsior 31 8 6 1 1 22:6 19
2 ACV Assen 8 6 1 1 21:8 19
3 VV Scherpenzeel 8 6 1 1 15:9 19
4 Genemuiden 8 6 0 2 19:9 18
5 Harkemase Boys 8 5 2 1 15:11 17
6 TEC 8 5 1 2 27:16 16
7 Sportlust 8 4 3 1 16:13 15
8 Sparta Nijkerk 8 4 2 2 22:16 14
9 Purmersteijn 8 4 2 2 15:11 14
10 VV Hoogeveen 8 4 1 3 22:17 13
11 ADO 20 Heemskerk 8 3 1 4 15:18 10
12 USV Hercules 8 3 0 5 12:20 9
13 DVS '33 Ermelo 8 1 2 5 10:15 5
14 VV DOVO 8 1 2 5 9:19 5
15 Eemdijk 7 1 0 6 9:26 3
16 Staphorst 8 0 3 5 10:18 3
17 HVV Hollandia 7 0 1 6 13:23 1
18 SVZW Wierden 8 0 1 7 9:26 1
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie (Relegation)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rijnvogels 8 6 2 0 25:7 20
2 VV Noordwijk 8 6 1 1 15:2 19
3 Lisse 8 6 1 1 14:6 19
4 Excelsior Maassluis 8 5 2 1 16:7 17
5 RKSV UDI 19 8 4 2 2 14:9 14
6 GOES 8 4 2 2 16:17 14
7 Dongen 8 4 1 3 21:17 13
8 VV Zwaluwen 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
9 Gemert 8 2 4 2 12:13 10
10 Blauw Geel 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
11 Roosendaal 8 3 0 5 13:16 9
12 SV Poortugaal 8 3 0 5 8:13 9
13 UNA 8 1 5 2 12:13 8
14 TOGB 8 2 2 4 13:18 8
15 VVSB 8 2 1 5 10:16 7
16 Groene Ster 8 1 3 4 12:20 6
17 Achilles Veen 8 1 0 7 7:20 3
18 EVV 8 0 2 6 8:19 2
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie (Relegation)