Sport Picks

Stadium Background

IAPE vs Maranhao

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense Estadio Municipal Nhozinho Santos, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

75' Event
Igor Badio

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
IAPE
30%
Draws
58%
Maranhao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Maranhao carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Maranhao a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Maranhao arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor IAPE, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
IAPE Clean Sheet 16%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric IAPE Maranhao
Matches Played 33 41
Wins 11 14
Draws 9 11
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 0.97 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.02
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Maranhense
IAPE vs Maranhao
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Maranhense
Maranhao vs IAPE
0:0
Jan 28, 2026 Maranhense
IAPE vs Maranhao
1:0
May 7, 2025 Maranhense
IAPE vs Maranhao
1:0
Apr 30, 2025 Maranhense
Maranhao vs IAPE
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

IAPE Compare

Top Goalscorer Igor Badio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Maranhao Compare

Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

IAPE 11 / 100
Maranhao 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
IAPE Maranhao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

IAPE's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Maranhao has conceded goals in 68% of their last 41 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

IAPE went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

IAPE VS Maranhao
1 Goals Scored 0.75
2.17 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 38%
67% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

IAPE

(Home)
07 Jun
Maracana
2 : 0
IAPE
31 May
IAPE
1 : 3
Sampaio Correa
23 May
IAPE
1 : 1
Iguatu
16 May
Moto Club
2 : 2
IAPE
09 May
IAPE
1 : 2
Parnahyba
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Maranhao

(Away)
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Maranhao
2 : 1
Ypiranga FC
04 Jul
Maranhao
0 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Moto Club 1
IAPE 4
Maranhao 3
Sampaio Correa 2
Final
IAPE 1
Maranhao 0